Making Sense of the Week That Was: The Positive, Negative & Unintended Consequences of Short-Termism … The Wrap Edition #37
News Wrap Edition #37 of Volume 1 | 1 October 2021
Lead Editors: Howard Fields & Scott Phares (New)
October is both, “ADD/ADHD and SQUIRREL AWARENESS MONTH,” (two surprisingly related topics)…
This week we examine the positive, negative, and unintended consequences of short-termism, which is something people suffer from when they focus excessively on short-term results at the expense of an individual’s, company’s, or country’s long-term interests. In other words, people who are doing things that they perceive make themselves better off in the short run, but, possibly, worse off in the end (sometimes referred to as delay discounting) .
We are encouraged to narrow our thinking to the short term. How many times have you heard phrases like the following:
- Don’t boil the ocean. Find a quick win!
- Let’s solve today’s problem. The rest will have to wait.
- We can’t afford to fix everything, so we’ll have to kick some of these issues down the road. Put it in the “Parking lot”.
- What’s the minimum we can do to show progress?
- Every journey begins with one step.
- Some action is better than inaction.
- How do you eat an elephant? The answer, one bite at a time.
- How do you measure company success? The answer, by its stock price and quarterly performance.
- How do you tackle systematic issues such as climate change, inequality, racism, and education when no one is willing to compromise today to achieve long-term benefit? The answer, you can’t.
- How do you develop long-term public policy when political leadership changes every few years? The answer, you don’t!
These aphorisms perpetuate because they are simple, and sometimes they are the perfect solution, after all, it is pretty hard to start a journey without taking the first step.
These statements, questions, and responses shine a spotlight on why humans tend to think and act in their short-term interests. (Alternatively, we spotlight in a separate post this last week why longer term perspectives matter in “20 Reasons”).
Given this, it seems appropriate to ask if short-termism is a good thing or a bad thing? Most people see it as a negative, as a bias that often leads intelligent people to mistakenly focus on symptoms rather than the root cause of a problem. But is that always the case? We think not.
“How do we determine if something is indeed short-term?” Well, that’s often in the eye of the beholder. And, the answer can lead to confusion. To achieve clarity we must address two time-related issues. First, what is the point of demarcation between short term and long term? Should we consider a 1-year outlook short term? How about 5, or 10, or 50?
This leads us to the second issue. What is the comparative time horizon against which we measure duration? Compared to the age of the Earth (~4.5 Billion Years), the climate change problems created over the last 150–200 years are short-term impacts, regardless of their degree. Conversely, many would argue that the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States on a single day in November of 2016 has resulted in long-term impacts. Hmmm, does this mean that every issue has its own yardstick?
One of the beautiful aspects of sensemaking is that you often come away from a discussion with more questions than answers.
So what’s the takeaway on short-termism? Well, clearly, some issues are more existential than others, demanding an immediate, meaningful, and sustainable short-term response that can handle change. While this may seem at times like boiling the ocean, it’s better to boil the ocean figuratively, than to allow it to boil physically.
We’d love to hear your thoughts about short-term thinking and short-termism. Why not join us on Clubhouse this Sunday the 3rd of October 2021 at 8 am PST | 11 am EST | 4 pm BST | 5 pm SAST to make sense of it all, have your say, and engage with your favourite Grey Swan Guild Wrap Editors: Doyle Buehler, Sylvia Gallusser, Sean Moffitt, Agustín Borrazás, Rob Tyrie, Louise Mowbray, Ben Thurman, Antonia Nicols and now new additions to our team Esmee Wilcox, Geeta Dhir, Gina Clifford, Su McVey with Clubhouse Captains Howard Fields, Scott Phares, and Lindsay Fraser.
In the meantime….Let’s Wrap.
The Great 😇
1.UN Chief Criticizes Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson for ‘joyriding to space while millions go hungry on Earth’. As the world watches Billionaires launch themselves into space it seems that not everyone was as engrossed or even impressed by these feats of private commercial space flight. Interestingly from United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, he instead of praise, eviscerated them, including pointing out “Parents see a future for their children that looks even bleaker than the struggles of today.” And at the same time, they see “billionaires joyriding to space while millions go hungry on Earth.” The Great Juxtaposition. “Is it right for this money to be spent on wealthy endeavours, or would it be better to feed the world first?
2.Covid-19 Is A ‘Wake-Up Call’ to Act on Southeast Asia’s Food Waste Crisis. Amid global lockdowns and halted travel, the pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of supply networks, as disruptions created bottlenecks in farm labor, transportation, and logistics and sparked global food shortages and price hikes.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that one-third of all food produced — or 1.3 billion tonnes — ends up lost or wasted every year. Food waste also accounts for 8% to 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, another UN report showed.
Coming out of the pandemic, more hotels and airlines are now tackling food waste and putting sustainability “front and center” on their priority list, said Rayner Loi, co-founder, and chief executive of Singapore-based AI food waste management start-up, Lumitics. The firm plans to expand to 1,000 locations across Asia-Pacific in the next five years with an AI-powered solution that can reduce food waste by up to 40% and food costs by 8%.
“Ironically, it is a vicious cycle. The slower we are to take action on climate change, the more we will see extreme weather and the greater the likelihood of zoonotic diseases — that could consequently increase food waste,” said Audry Chia, Associate Professor, National University of Singapore Business School.
3.Why Tontines Should Be A Piece of the Retirement Solution. Retirees are often faced with the fear of outliving their assets. Given this, one would think receiving fixed payments for life would be a popular option among retirees. But most Americans choose not to purchase annuities due to concerns over cost, and complex regulations. Old-fashioned tontines, which once held an estimated 7.5% of national wealth are a modern option that just might overcome these concerns.
A tontine is a pooled investment arrangement where a group of retirees contribute a lump-sum payment and then receive equal payouts of the total pooled amount for life. Here’s the kicker — as each member of the pool dies, the payout is divided amongst the surviving members of the pool. So theoretically, if only half of the retirees in the original pool are still alive, then they’ll be getting twice as much money.
In addition to their unique method of addressing longevity risk, tontines also cost much less to manage. That said, tontines were originally unregulated and in the early part of the 20th Century fell into disfavor due to corruption and impropriety. Today with new regulations and digital security methods, fraud can be limited. More recently, tontine-like annuities have made a comeback in the UK, Canada, and the United States. Perhaps there’s one in your future.
The Good 🤩
1.ESG Thinking Offers Alternative To “Short-termism.” Long-term attention to environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles is a natural antidote to dangerous short-term thinking in business, according to Jack Manley, a global market strategist with the company’s global market insights strategy team. He believes ESG offers a cure to “short-termism” — something senior business leaders around the globe are increasingly concerned about.
Manley said the increasing influence of ESG thinking, which requires a lot of forward planning, offers an alternative to making short-term moves designed to have immediate — and likely short-term — impacts on stock prices.
“If we can indeed see less focus on short-termism, we will inherently see a greater focus on ESG-type spending,” Manley said. “Maybe instead we see improved benefits for employees. Maybe we see greener sources of energy. Maybe we see greater community outreach. All of these things, I think, are possible if we move away from short-termism.”
Around the world, studies show that more people are becoming more politically active, and governments are waking up to ESG realities and becoming more responsive to popular demands for sustainability.
2.Bentoism: A Map to Liberate Ourselves from the “Now Me.” Bentoism, an emerging life philosophy aimed to combat cycles of Short-termism using Japanese wisdom. Apparently, it only makes sense to live life “Beyond Near Term Orientation” according to Yancey Strickler. This method for making decisions stems from “seeing the full spectrum of our self-interests and thinking beyond the present moment”. Thinking about your “Now Me” and “Your Future Me” at once can alter your decision-making, to be more planful. Can we imagine a world where we can train businesses to consume a balanced variety and still remain 20% hungry for tomorrow? Hara hachi bu anyone?
3. Easily Distracted? Try Meditation. Is anyone having time management issues? In today’s Pandemic world how can we possibly be focused and calm especially at work? At Yoga Journal, the boss stressed the need to include mediation, either Focused Attention or Open Monitoring. Both are effective to refocus the mind on your current task. So next time you space out, it may be meditative to stay there longer before you pull yourself back. Count ten breaths and notice which nostril you feel the most.
The Bad 😬
1.Delete Your Windows 10 Password Now: Microsoft Suddenly Issues Security Update For Millions. Thumbs, faces, passwords, fingerprints. It seems the number of ways to log onto a computer continues to increase. And every time a new method is announced it feels like Groundhog Day. Well, Microsoft is actually eliminating one of them and allowing users to delete passwords completely. Yes, for those who constantly have to change them because they forgot, there is a cure! But of course, there is an APP to replace the passwords, password included. It seems they want a more secure way to protect our data, but how much security will it actually add?
2.How Fish Are Being Affected by Climate Change. Oceans play a major role in climate dynamics, absorbing 93% of the heat that accumulates in the Earth’s atmosphere, and a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released from fossil fuels. The impacts of climate change on our oceans include shifts in temperature, acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in ocean currents.
In the past 30 years, marine heatwaves are estimated to have increased by more than 50%. Globally, ocean temperatures are predicted to increase by 1–4 degrees centigrade by 2100. Sudden rises in temperature and acidification can lead to the loss of marine habitats and species. Shifting ocean currents and warming waters are changing the distribution of fish stocks and altering the structure of ecosystems.
The bad news is that some species will not survive due to both habitat changes and poor harvesting strategies. The good news is that the effects of climate change on our oceans and seafood supply can be managed. Learn more about The Marine Stewardship Council, which sets standards for sustainable fishing in support of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
3.Menopause HRT “Does Not Raise Dementia Risk.” Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) for women during menopause has become a treatment that is mainstream. Like other pharmaceutical medicines, there is no way to understand the long-term effects of prescriptions. Now HRT is associated with a higher risk to develop dementia if used over 5 years which many women have. How do we weigh the risks vs rewards for any pharmaceutical treatment short term?
The Ugly 😱
1.The Most Brazen $400 Billion Unemployment Funds Fraud In History. During the chaotic days of the pandemic, it’s alleged that nefarious fraudsters stole over $400 billion from the United States government. This staggering amount is around 70% of unemployment monies paid out. Bad actors could have applied for the funds and left the country. According to Axios, these could have been state-sponsored acts.
It seems, in hindsight, political leaders knew about the possibility of fraud and theft, especially as the Payroll Protection Plan, a program to bail out small businesses, was co-opted by large corporations and other entities that were not entitled to participate. The politicians turned a blind eye, as they felt money needed to get into the hands of the jobless and took the gamble that everything would work out well.
Haywood Talcove, the CEO of LexisNexis Risk Solutions, says this all could have been avoided. The tools needed to verify someone’s identity in real-time when a transaction occurs are now commoditized with many companies offering SaaS and API-based products. The failure of our government to utilize these solutions when it comes to programs that dispense tens of billions of dollars is actually symptomatic of a more central, underlying issue: in general, the government has not “gone digital” and we are now witnessing the consequences, he claims. One wants to check on the money Lexis Nexis stands to gain from this proper shift to identity management. Maybe that kind of service should be part of common digital infrastructure.
2. Extinctions of Animal Species. In a disappointing glimpse of the future, federal wildlife officials announced on Wednesday that 22 animals and one plant should be declared extinct and removed from the endangered species list. The announcement comes amid a worsening global biodiversity crisis that threatens a million species with extinction, many within decades. Human activities like farming, logging, mining, and damming take habitat from animals and pollute much of what’s left. People poach and overfish. Climate change adds new peril.
The extinctions include 11 birds, eight freshwater mussels, two fish, a bat, and a plant. Many of them were likely extinct, or almost so, by the time the Endangered Species Act passed in 1973, officials and advocates said, so perhaps no amount of conservation would have been able to save them.
“Biodiversity is the foundation of social and economic systems, yet we have not managed to solve the extinction crisis,” said Leah Gerber, an ecologist, and director of the Center for Biodiversity Outcomes at Arizona State University.
Next month, talks will ramp up on a new global biodiversity agreement. One proposal that has gained traction recently is a plan, known as 30x30, to protect at least 30 percent of Earth’s land and oceans by 2030.
3.Tennessee Limitation of Antibody Treatments To Vax Persons. Anyone who remembers the US political fight over the Affordable Care act might remember fears of medical rationing and death boards. The pandemic has, in a frightening way, given the world a full dose of how this looks, feels, and works. Health officials around the world have no choice but to make the hard short-term decisions about distributing life-saving medicine.
Tennessee, which is following the guidance of the National Institutes of Health, appears to be the first state to recommend limiting monoclonal antibody treatment to Covid-19 patients who are unvaccinated or vaccinated but immunocompromised.
The latest being antibody treatments for COVID patients and who gets priority. The treatable vaccinated sick or the unvaccinated?
The Grey Zone of Uncertainty 🧐
1.“Post Vax COVID” Is A New Disease. It seems Measles is a good historical benchmark for days to come as the pandemic becomes an epidemic. In the UK, the term they have been using is “Long-Covid” and they were the first country to identify the possibility and have studies initiated. Vaccinations have been scientifically correlated to less long-term impacts of the disease. The case of measles kept untold numbers of children from dying of the disease but some still have breakthrough cases. The short-term focus is on the adoption of the vaccine but will the long term produce a “shorter and gentler version?” Time and research will tell.
2.Paradoxical Planning in the Digital Age of Planning. Contradictions in media planning often see agencies caught between two schools of thought. We are mindful of the use of the term paradox, but these contradictions seem not to be binary choices. James Parnum, Mediacom UK’s head of planning asks us to consider four of these contradictions.:
- Brands have never been stronger or more vulnerable — The opportunity and risks posed by the digital age are very real. Thus, while brands will continue to grow, this growth is never far from being redirected requiring a simultaneous media strategy of both attack and defend.
- Growth requires consistency and disposability — The “half-life” of content now can vary from only a matter of minutes on Twitter, hours on Facebook, weeks on YouTube, and even years on blog posts.
- Today’s culture means we need to be “consistently adaptable” — the internet and algorithms have accelerated the fragmentation of both mainstream and sub-cultures making it harder than ever before to get a single message, that doesn't change, to a large number of people quickly
- Use less data in the era of data — somewhere along the road we lost sight of the power of context in the rush to buy billions of data-led digital impressions. The who mattered more than the where.
Although concrete thinking is desired, more abstract thinking is required. This takes information design, not “shoot from the hip” policy or communication. The digital age is full of these planning contradictions. The trick is to identify them but crucially resist the temptation to pick a side. They are not binary choices. Great communication planning, like most things in life, is neither black nor white and should embrace the shades of grey. It's perfectly acceptable to change a position on new information. Remind yourself that the only constant is change. If Heraclitus figured this out thousands of years ago, there is no reason not to keep and hold two contradictory beliefs in your mind without freaking out or claiming commonsense when one tries to disbelieve the scientific method.
3.Time to Start Firing Unvaccinated People? The subject of the Great Resignation has been under study for some time but now, have the tables been turned with mandated vaccinations? Rights are challenging but individuals are finding out they do not have rights they think they might deserve and those decisions were made decades of years in the past. Beyond losing employees or co-workers you like the best, there could become a grave shortage of essential workers especially in the medical field. On the other hand, should non-vaccinated people be serving in the front lines? What are the other methods to ensure the safety of workers and patients? How will stronger testing impact things? Will prophylactics for Corona Viruses become available as has happened with other viruses. We have the classic “Needs of the few vs need of the many” challenge.
Tapestry
The collection of images, videos, and charts delivered by the zeitgeist that is the internet and the news cycle.
Data of the Week:
The Half-Life of Content
Lexicon of The Week:
Remember. Be careful with the word paradox, it is as difficult to use as ironic, which is ironic. Paradoxes often disappear on new understandings based on observation and physics. Just because you don't understand something, does not make it a paradox. Sometimes 2 truths only seem contradictory and there is no hole in the bucket.
A paradox is a logically self-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one’s expectation.[1][2][3] It is a statement that, despite apparently valid reasoning from true premises, leads to a seemingly self-contradictory or a logically unacceptable conclusion.[4][5] A paradox usually involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time.[6][7][8]
Insight of the Week:
Short term investments can lead to long term gains
Meme of the Week:
Music of the Week
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5NtzB-voZo
Strategies of the Week:
The Tug of War For Time
Qualities of Short & Long Term Actions
Video of the Week:
The Extinct Ivory-Billed Woodpecker
Ivory-billed woodpeckers filmed in Louisiana in 1935, when the birds were already rare. Despite pleas from conservationists and wildlife officials, the area was later logged by the Chicago Mill and Lumber Company.
About Us:
This month our Feature Guild City of the month is Boston. If you know some smart and passionate Beantowner, please refer her/him to us, get them to fill out the member form and visit our Feature City Town Hall
We have opened up another Medium and Clubhouse flank to the Grey Swan. Based on the pioneering successes of our Grey Swan News Wrap effort we have created “The Futures & Sensemaking” Series with an array of articles forthcoming about the why and how of making sense of the world.
Our first two well-attended sessions happened were on “Why Futures & Foresights Matter? and “Why Sensemaking & Critical Thinking Matter?”.
Next up Episode #3 is “Futurism & Foresight — How to Sense the Future — on Friday, October 8th. Join us as we peel back the curtain on how the best among us make sense of the world.
Our Guild’s Atelier #7 could be our funnest one yet. We’re calling it Swans & Nests and it’s our version of Speed Sensemaking. Meet 12 wickedly smart people in an intimate setting as you explore the 12 biggest topics of the day. Join us October 14th. https://bit.ly/gsgatelier7
Grey Swan Guild
Making Sense of the World’s Biggest Challenges — curating and creating knowledge through critical thinking observation, informed futurism, scenario-driven foresight and sensemaking analysis🦢
