The 2023 Grey Swans
Twenty-one improbable, but high-impact events for the coming year
News Wrap Edition #40 of Volume 2
Authors: Rob Tyrie, Sean Moffitt Co-founders of the Grey Swan Guild
Prediction machines are inherently flawed as the future is rarely, if ever, a straight-line projection of the past. At the closing of the old year, akin to the ancient man with the scythe, welcoming the new babe of 2023, people throw the bones and make predictions about the future. Guesses are in every publication and it makes for good entertainment as we look outward to the future. A helpful curation is attached from guild colleague Amy Daroukakis — 83 end-of-the year trend reports in one click
Anyone can predict the future. Human brains are veritable prediction machines. Just by thinking, we create the future with our imaginations. A lot of those predictions are right. A lot of them are wrong, but from astrologists to tarot readers and physicists, everyone can take a guess. As much as we laud advancing technology in our Swan predictions below, postulating the future is still a very human endeavour, colliding right brain-meets-left brain connections that never surface or trip up on technology algorithms.
Last year, one of the Guild’s most popular Wraps was from early January 2022- A Prediction of Grey Swans, dialed into guessing the big events and developments that would have a huge impact on the world but with a catch. We didn’t go for the obvious — we went for Grey Swans (see definition in section & graphic below).
The Essence of a Grey Swan
Grey Swans are in the realm of the possible or expected … but they are still jarringly surprising when they occur. It’s just like when the popcorn pops on a heated iron pan, you know it's going to happen, but you just don’t know exactly when. It’s like expecting an asteroid to hit the earth. Once again, you know for sure, given the size of the universe, and the things flying around it, it's bound to happen again but just exactly when it will happen is quite the mystery. Improbable in a specific time span? Maybe. Major profound effects if they manifest? Most definitely. That’s a Grey Swan!
We can safely say other than the bang-on calls about mass terminations, inflation, and interest rates, our prognosticators from last year were close to the money on a number of other predictions. We were close, and sniffing in the right corners, but we were off the full bull's eye.
We did skirt closely on some things that got messy, but really missed the geography of big problems like: invasions, global sanctions against one country, global energy prices, supply chain messes, and the location of wars. Size may matter, but so does location, location, location.
Assessing our 2022 Grey Swan Performance
Still with some lens-shifting, here are seven 2022 predictions we were close on:
- Speaking of outsized inflation and a big Sports shift… Prices are much higher than last year (forecasted at 8.9% inflation in 2022, higher than a relatively subdued 2.5% average rate over the last 32 years). Pickleball is a winner if you think it is a real sport and some do. Some don’t. (2022 Grey Swan #5, #3 and #15).
- Housing cost rollercoaster… bubble burst which is good and bad (2022 Grey Swan #3) .
- Big Fires… but near Bordeaux in Girondine, where over 39,000 people were evacuated and more than 20,000 hectares burned uncontrollably. That’s 2/3’s the area of the Mediterranean Island nation of Malta. In Los Angeles, it was smokey but they could still bear it (2022 Grey Swan #12)
- Big Heat… With over 1,000 related deaths, it was existential in Portugal but not in our predicted Florida this year (2022 Grety Swan #1).
- Invasion of a small country by a big powerful country … wrong adversaries. About that terrorism thing though. There is evidence, Russia has committed terrorist acts (2022 Grey Swan #4).
- The Stock Market enters the bear territory on a slow correction, and Crypto definitely crashes. It was a year of correction from the bizarre slingshot and lockdown economies of 2021. “Overall, corporate America is healthier than Wall Street has expected. Throw in the resumption of strong company stock buybacks, and there is your good news for stocks”, said officials from Morgan Stanley (2022 Grey Swan #10).
- We didn’t get to the singularity, but the generative transformers shook up the fourth quarter with OpenAI’s and Google’s offerings. Will the new Transformers take over all AI? The short-term financial prospects of technology however went in the sewer (2022 Grey Swan #18).
We made some predictions that were clearly off the mark. In some cases we were simply too early. In others, we were wide of the posts badly (and proud to admit it — boldness has genius in it, and a fair degree of adjustable declination).
Here are seven we completely missed — no apologies, they just never happened (but they could have):
- Cars, Telsa acquired something, but not another car company, it was a Twitter Bird. Meanwhile, Volkswagen spins Porsche off (kinda) to raise the cash off to be a plausible threat to all automakers with the People Electric Car, VolksElektrischeWagon Geschellschaft (2022 Grey Swan #2).
- 25 Countries adopting crypto. Hmmm. No new country adopted crypto this year, but with the turmoil, Aruba and Ghana have a ground-floor opportunity as does Fidelity and Goldman. Is it a buyer's market to make up losses and average down? FTX’s fat fraud derailed all crypto value and has people screaming for regulation and various people's heads and hard dollar assets and another ill-gotten booty. If it makes anyone feel any better, Madoff made off and vaporized way more money that disappeared by FTX. However, details are emerging and it looks complicated, especially the ties to government donations and potential money laundering. Fugly (2022 Grey Swan #21).
- Quantum is making haste slowly — although 32% growth is nothing to sniff at — Quantum just still needs its defining moment. Keep tracking this one. It is only a matter of time before a Q-Leap because generative algorithms can use this type of technology. 👈 See the link to this 2022 Pre-Pub Research Paper from IEEE Fellows. #neurips ((2022 Grey Swan #6)
- Bankruptcies actually dropped in and were much worse in the housing meltdown, the horizon however is red sky in the morning. Depending on source, there was a gentle downturn in year-over-year Chapter Sevens but not matching histrionics in the media. Face it, employment is high, new businesses keep economies going, and bankruptcies reflect bad businesses that should be eliminated by new economic conditions. The rates rose in Canada early in the year but are dropping now. That’s called a correction. However the global debt-to-ouput level is foreboding at a country, business and household basis in an interest rate era that is historic for this new millenia (2022 Grey Swan #3).
- The prediction was the end of the flu. The Flu and Colds are still are a thing along with Covid-19. We did not avoid them, they are actually flourishing. We predicted rapid learning from vaccine development and genetics translated to influenza. Instead, we got an opening up of the world. We did not miss them. Relevant Canada Flu stats. US surge in Flu after Thanksgiving. In fact, this year the experts concluded flu may kill 650,000 among us, more than previous estimates and if you total up over a decade adds up to a COVID. We’ll keep waiting (2022 Grey Swan #14).
- No Chart Topping AI bands, but some irate artisans resisting the AI musicians. There is plenty of AI-created novel music, that is low-cost to license. In the art world, there was that piece of Art that walloped humans in a contest that make people get the pitchforks and torches out. (Listen up, if the Monkeys and Vanilla Ice became famous, AI will create chart-topping songs and “bands”). We are keeping to our sound guns on this one and maintaining in our 2023 picks (2022 Grey Swan #19).
- Unless Nayib Armando Bukele Orte from El Salvador (41 years old) qualified, the young leaders did not ascend. We predicted a new wave oif youth leaders coming to the fore as new generations of global electorate hunger for people who they identify with. Instead populists, dictators and elites did. Although 44 year old Volodymyr Zelenskyy is giving a post-modern Churchill-ian command performance as Ukraine’s beacon of free world hope (2022 Grey Swan #11).
“The startups and savvy Incs. are the ones constantly battling inertia and acting against conventional thinking, In the short run, many people like to cover their ass. In the long run, fortune indeed rewards the bold predictors, not the safe ones.” Sean Moffit, Author, “Wikibrands”.
Our “Grey Swans” Criteria:
With our sequel list of twenty-one prospective Grey Swans below, we have purposely dismissed the status quo thought-stream and focused on a full blackjack of solutions that have three uniquely different characteristics:
- They candidly have less than a 25% chance of happening — at least on the timing we have claimed
- If they did happen, they would have big world scale- societal, economic, industrial, cultural, resource, and ethical implications
- They have a chance of happening, starting, or accelerating in 2023 - we have tried to define measures where we can claim accuracy where possible.
This 2023’s Edition of the 21 Grey Swans 🦢:
Queue the opening music from Space:1999. Check. Self-important and intelligent cello chorus. Check. Big voiced announcer voice with a montage of twenty-one grey swans swimming in the waves in and V-formation: Boom.
Here are our twenty-one Grey Swan postcards from the future:
1.Culture.Creatives : Flashpoints as tech drifts across the culture lens.
The genie is out of the bottle. AI is very effective, with human piloting, at generating written works, art, design, music, and other forms even bad Seinfeld and other Yada, Yada, Yada scripts. It will be able to restrict and track the use of the new assets created, or not. There will be continued calls of all forms of misappropriation (friendly warning — being average to below average in any industry including cultural and creative sectors is a precarious place to work) — people have to become teachers first, and keep learning to race with these new tools. Half past human indeed.
Measures → Popular use of GPT algorithms in magazines, news, and content sites, 5x media coverage, 10x VC investment in AI media companies, a New York Times best seller produced by AI, and a cacophony of regulators, unions and culture industries asking to reign it in.
2. Culture.Sport: Sex scandals and bad behaviors front-paged. Hockey will go through its ugly culture this coming year. The accountability will be laid out across Hockey Canada and National Hockey League professionals as the 2018 scandals and other troubling assaults come to light. Transparency and standing up bring other athletes from the shadows. Some will be inaccurately accused. Nobody wins. The shadow expands to bad American and Association Football behavior too.
Every sport needs no sexual harassment or violence and as Charles Barkley so profoundly extolled “I’m Not A Role Model… Just Because I Dunk A Basketball Doesn’t Mean I Should Raise Your Kids.”
Measures → World Impact — #MeTooSports, some sports sponsorship money dries up as a corporate rubber band snapback reaction, an average of four major players’ careers from every major sports league will be severely impacted by a wave of surprising, not surprising revelations.
3. Economics: Unemployment jumps. Employment is quasi-full for now (see bleow on particpation rates of young and female). With realities of a post-pandemic marketplace becoming apparent, with higher supply chain costs, with technology displacing workers quickly, and the cost of capital rising, small business owners and entrepreneurs flock to safe havens and try the global game of chasing low-cost labor or high-interest bank accounts.
If capital flees to land or bank accounts or even gold, the result with be high unemployment, and low production, which will inflate supply prices. It's a balancing act over job losses being replaced by new jobs. It is like Invisible Hand Ju-Jitsu.
Obscuring all of this semi-false full employment narrative is Global Employment Participation Rates for 15–24 year olds was nearly 60% in 1990s cannot even eclipse 40% now. Global adult female participation rates have dropped from 51% to less than 46% during the same time period. Human race, we are punching below our potential.
Measure → Nation Rates Unemployment in Nations, year over year comparisons, global unemployment will rise and have its first three year run above 6% since 2002–2004, despite COVID rebound employment participation rates among youth and female remain below 40% and 46% respectively.
4. Economics: Insufficient Labour, Tough Economy Drive Robots Inc.
Regulatory and worker rights issues that have held advancement of automation back get blown away by pandemic reappraisal, housing shortage, mismatched labor market, increases in production with robots, and bad supply chains with people in the wrong spots. In the US there were 1.7 jobs for each person seeking the blue or red pill.
Measure → Unavailable employment, workers not in the right spot, wage inflation. Physical Robot usage counts in aging countries. 85 million unfilled jobs climbs to 150 million as the global tech skills gap increases.
5. Economics: The first days of tomorrow’s energy. The Russian-Ukraine crisis has countries flocking to alternate sources and realizing — hmmm this is a no carbon/low carbon, future innovation economy-based, and a healthier global ecosystem. Winning Nations will invest and grow alternative sources of energy that are E2E sustainable. E2E sustainability accounts for the complete cycle of energy and the total cost of generation, distribution, and storage. Energy loss across all states must also be accounted for. Hopefully, a new discipline of Energy Economist can emerge to help us all make better choices. Look to China and the US to lead the growth and still not catch up to the Nordic shift.
Measure → Average Temp Increase? The number of countries on carbon with cap-and- trade will go from 46 countries to at least 60 countries as participating countries place tacit pressure on others, capacity is still to exponentially grow led by sheer economics, climate need, China, India and a newly-motivated Europe but renewables climbs to above 25% of world energy output in 2023 (from 20% in 2020).
6. Economics: BTC goes beyond 50k USD and is a common method of savings. All of the Cryptocurrencies went for a ride this year. With Robinhood loop-de-loops and Fidelity declaring BTC as digital gold, that took BTC up past $60k USD — so high, everyone was flying blind. But, with scandal, and fraud all around the world including the old school favorites of wire fraud, pump-and-dump, and tried and true Ponzi Scams, BTC bounced down to around $16k USD by the last week of December. A wild ride indeed. Volatility has been a feature of this neo-asset class. It’s probably unlikely it doubles past $32k this coming year but would be in Grey Swan territory if it hits $50k, with no real surprise for Ecuador and Microstrategy. In the meantime — all Crypto Conferences in Miami and Vegas will fail or dwindle to nothing but a whimper in 2023. Folks at Goldman are banking on gold outperforming BTC, saying “Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem”. Baron’s pundits are calling for a 50% drop and lower below the 5k range. And in a swing for the fences Analytics, has BTC prices hitting $100k. Trust in currency, as we are finding out, is a mercurial thing.
Measure → Average BTC Price on December 2023 — — $100k..…. nope — wait a sec…- thinking…. let’s call it $50k USD as the bitcoin value on Dec 29, 2023, based on increasing inspection, regulation, adoption, digitization needs, capital mobility, globalization and the post-modernization of currency. It’s a goofy asset class. There are new ones all the time.
7. Health: mRNA vaccine created that massively impacts either coronaviruses, cancer, malaria, HIV or flu to the benefit of all of society. Two decades of background testing from SARS and three years of continued research and massive investment based on the successful deployments of mRNA vaccines, will create big knock-on effects for other non-pandemic related health issues.
There may be early breakthroughs, that, if the efficacies are similar to COVID-19 vaccines, we will look for a healthy multiple of lives to be saved. mRNA Leaders: Moderna, BioNtech, and Germany’s Curevac.
Measure → Official Early Trials and Clinical Trials, one big new development of mRNA makes it to expedited phase three trials and big media interest.
8. Politics.Society: Silk Road vs. Main Street. Bigger proxy conflicts, trade wars, and internet firewalls happen between the two superpowers and parts of the world, the USA & Western World and China & Eastern World. Countries are asked to declare and choose. Tensions rise over Taiwan and North Korea but no conflict…yet.
Measure → Trade Deficit Shift Country to Country. Major Trade agreements initiated, rewritten, or scrapped. Europe unequivocally shifts to US/Western World with two key military and trade alliance announcments. Africa and Middle East are split between both sides. Many Australaisan countries resist hard allure of closer affinity to China given human rights and regional war mongering, but are suaded on softer measures.
9. Politics.Crime: The UN creates an international court for information surveillance crimes. The court will need to be augmented by a new division of Interpol for the Investigation and enforcement of new human rights regarding clean information. Disinformation makes it to the top ten list of many futurists as a growing problem. But after elections meddling and polarization leading to violence are being promulgated and prompted by international disinformation and misinformation, it seems impossible to stop. One of the hardest parts of the jurisdiction in multinational attacks. A new role for the UN and a new Man from UNDLE Agency — UN Disinformation Law Enforcement?
Measure → UN announcement of new International Court following two-three high profile deep fake scenarios affecting geopolitics and capital markets.
10. Tech.AI: ChatGPT and clones get funded. A dozen unicorns are created and have a massive impact on the creative biz and all writing Jasper.AI and Copy.ai are already unicorns, given the other advances of Massive Language Transformers, Look to 50 or 100 more unicorns or centaurs to emerge. Conversational Generation Algorithm Capabilities have always been exponential. That’s value. Look to FANG to buy them before they get too large. Hugging Face anyone? The Darkhorse may be Open Source. The Cathedral vs the Bazaar is hard to sort out on this one.
Measure → market cap of all companies delivering, majority core value with Generative Transformers. One new independent FANG-potential emerges, and the major contenders are courted and purchased by the big eight tech players.
11. Tech.Ownership: A form of AI is incorporated as a business (or religion) in multiple countries. The majority ownership is held amongst AIs. Minority ownership is allowed but only by individual humans. There is no human CEO. The is a board of advisory of humans to train the governing data set for ethics and common sense. This could begin as a collective experiment by humans. They will be one to watch. Look for ownership in all large-cap AI corporations that come under inspection by governments and large industries with a load of cash and resources. Laws would have to change to allow an AI to have ownership rights. If a river can have human rights, why not an AI? A company the size of Mercer could be a proxy for this kind of entity, where a human acts as a beard or proxy from an AI. It’s likely BTC will also play a part.
Measure → Multiple AI newspapers or a new world company emerge with a big fat $1 Trillion USD Market Cap.
12. Tech.Business: Meta collapses, Google bruised, Twitter off the canvas. Massive FANG and Twitter shenanigans ensue. Two of the FANG companies merge to create a new entity. Reinforcement of the Apple credo comes home to roost as incumbents have a tough time building new business models, see the weariness of the old business model, and the rejection of selling your information as THE asset.
Measure → Market cap of all companies delivering. Warning, there is so much cash in these companies, they can transform relatively rapidly but have tough times overcoming incumbent cultures. These are not dot.com companies made of PowerPoint decks and hope, they are Fortune 500s too married to their current business models. Although they all have data centers and more data and metadata that can not be valued today in any other way than as priceless, there will be major limits placed on their powers through international regulatory bodies, privacy legal challenges and advertising ennui. Big Oil has now become Big Tech, and they are no longer the hungry up-and-coming darlings of our dreams, media and hopes.
13. Tech.Streaming: Streaming Services looking older and older. A downturn in followership turns the innovation button on to tweak business models — social integration, commerce integration, advertising micro-targeted models, live, interactive broadcasts, political electioneering, and interactive dating come to streamers near you.
Measure → Ad Market Share and monthly active users drop. A major cable company will call it quits because of cord-cutting. A major tech company will try to build a streaming platform of platforms. All four major streamers will introduce an expanded range of services that could play with their future business model.
14. Tech.Elon & Social: A competitor to Twitter emerges to take half of its market share in ads. The new micro-content forerunner is based on new conversational AI. With new tech, new computing, and new cultural desires in Gen Z and Gen Alpha, the nascent social media will be a tribe, an authentic one. So rather than posting to “Everyone”, the content will only post to your small tribes or compartmentalized groups — delivering on the promise of mass customization in social. Discord is already there and goes well beyond the new Twitter darling alternative Mastodon, especially for groups of less than 3,000. Watch out for Geneva, it is bound to grow fast because of familiarity and ease of use. The bullhorn is no longer, and the digital water cooler is back.
Measure → lowered Twitter market cap, halved (at least as a media firm, use as a payments and services gambit modelled after Asian social media to come), the “Clubhouse” for 2022 gets established designed for tight groups — humungous growth, but questions of longevity prevail.
15. Tech.Crime: Drone Civil Crime Events. As is the case with many conflicts, war can get digitized, desensitized, and further dehumanized — given the inexpensive nature of drones, and the difficulty in defending soft targets against them. Regrettably, this force makes it into the public sphere in 2023. Multiple drone terrorism events happen this year, unfortunately, starting in European cities and spreading from there…bomb shelters grow as a business again. One Kamikaze Drone made in Iran would make a horror out of a weekend market or shopping mall in cities. Armaments that get deployed widely in large-scale wars, inevitably end up in the wrong hands at precisely the wrong times. Plus, the technology is now so accessible, early Ukraine efforts have proven you can take consumer drones and turn them into offensive weaponry.
Measure → Total Count of Non-Military Drone Casualties (100+), strikes by location (at least one European) and Countries/Groups controlling them.
16. Tech.Space: “Private-Secularization” of Space in full swing. Going to Jupiter, investigating the moon, intercepting asteroids, and secondary aeronautical countries like Oman, Israel, and Turkey are all launching their own satellites. More than 105 countries have satellites in space and the number of satellites crisscrossing the skies will jump through the 10,000 barriers in 2023.
There are new private low-earth missions, and Yusaku Maezawa and other wealthy, high-profile celebrities are even becoming involved. Some of the “spacecraft” is super high-flying dirigibles, encroaching in the space of low-level sats. No less than three private satellite companies are sprinkling in the thousands or orbiting flotsam, so many they will blot out the stars. Space and bandwidth will be available at lower than ever before imagined prices, and navigation and earth surveillance will be incredibly precise.
Measure → Number of Missions (over 200 missions and 2,000 satellites will deploy), Most Ever Cumulative KMs travelled in 2023. Some near misses with International Space Station in Low Orbit, the US considers a NATO-styled effort to manage traffic and threats.
17. Tech.Space2: A horrific private company space disaster occurs that moves control of space exploration back to governments and away from the rich. No comment. This is the incident that need not be named. hedging our bets with Grey Swan #16 — we find out in 2022 that space is no longer the Wild West and needs to be managed.
Measure → A Private space company (or companies) gets wiped out, Amazon, Starlink/SpaceX, SES, Saffran, Mitsubishi, One Web and Amazon/Blue Origin all get reigned in.
18. War: Unexpected War in the Middle East. Caused by rifts and realignment with Israel and a block of Arab Nations. Millenia has plagued all the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern countries as empires ebb and flow and resources change hands. In 2023, with shifts in trade and recognition between Israel and some Arab countries, will a tipping point lead to trade or war?
Measure → Financial Times declares the less-than-transparent war and lists combatants — see 2021 on the four poles of future conflict — Iran, Israel, Turkey and Arabian countries.
19. War: Traditional Russia-Ukraine conflict goes guerrilla. Terrorism across Ukraine, Russia, and former Eastern Bloc countries extend the war’s conflict outward, into territory not in military conflict since World War II. St Petersburg? Moscow? Volgograd? Stavropol? Kursk? Chișinău? Vilnius? Riga? Helsinki? Warsaw? The frick vs. frack terrorism accelerates NATO moves to lockdown borders and track war conflict refugees. Terrorism in Russian cities, unfortunately, emboldens a Russian population to continue territorial ambition.
Measure → Four Eastern European countries experience at least one act of terrorism. Crimea is the main theatre of war.
20. War.Economics: Geopolitics and Massive rebuilding campaigns in the post-Russo-Ukranian War that China and Russia become a trading collective based on energy and other commodities, they become the Eastern Silk Road Axis of Power with China as the official head backing a weakened, damaged Russia. A new Eastern Trading Block. Together they destabilize the Pacific.
Remember the Marshall Plan. The rebuilding of Germany and the rest of Europe after World War II not only changed history for the continent and the UK but also enabled a massive long-term transfer of wealth to the US. With the recently passed US Budget $1.7T US Government spending has set aside $44B for supporting Ukraine. We know that money will return to US interests threefold in multi-variate ways that occur when soft power is exercised. America “winning” in Ukraine, makes for one bullish military-industrial complex. Truth be told, all sectors of the US Economy from agriculture to pharma to banking, will all lift on this big recovery and source of inflation in the world.
Measure → The Economist names the new relationship “The Red Bloc” vs. “The Blue Bloc”, Energy, Trade and Development Flows all either flow red or blue and countries in the middle are asked to stop straddling.
21. Culture. Music. Chart Topping bands will be AI-Stars, even with irate artisans resisting the AI musicians. There is plenty of AI-created novel music, that is low-cost to license. Listen up, if the Monkeys and Vanilla Ice became famous, AI will create chart-topping songs and “bands”, we are keeping to our sound guns on this one from 2022 and maintaining it to 2023 pics. There will be music from AI on one of the key pop charts, most likely from sources like SoundCloud, Spotify, and Tik Tok, but likely one new AI-dedicated player coming out of Japan or Korea. A concert tour is planned for AI musicians and “hologramatic” performances (ed. automatically generated holograms). People will gladly pay real money in real-life environments for the privilege of the experience. As a side bonus prediction, there will be scandals with musicians using “SongGPT” and trying to pass off AI music as the real deal Human-Made™. This will be against the law in the future obviously. At the Guild, we recommend GPTs be used in creative work… TRANSPARENTLY. #guiderail
Measure — not one but three AI music acts break into the Billboard Top 40 and AI music fills the niche extreme arenas (and Tik Tok), many musical genres and cultural groups denounce as copyright stealing and cultural appropriation yet the government and music industry begins to shift views to one of progress and tolerance
Photo by Alex Munsell on Unsplash
The Extras & Time Capsules : Tapestry for 2023
TOP NETFLIX TV SERIES 2022
- Firefly Lane season 2 (2021)
- Alice in Borderland season 2 (2020)
- Sonic Prime season 1 (2022)
- I Am a Killer season 4 (2018)
- Harry & Meghan (2022)
- Emily in Paris season 3 (2020)
- Wednesday season 1 (2022)
- The Recruit season 1 (2022)
CHARTS Uniquely 2022
👉 interest in ChatGTP Contrary to the news cycle is not global at all. Sweden does not surprise us. No love from Porto.
👉 Wait-What retail drops after all the 2021 store closures and travel restrictions? Go figure. We call it a correction not a trend. On top of it Amazon's economy shifts as its Cloud grows.
👉 Give Peace a Change Will Ya?
Top 10 World News Searches on Google 2022
- Ukraine
- Queen Elizabeth passing
- Election results
- Powerball numbers
- Monkeypox
- Hurricane Ian
- Johnny Depp verdict
- Texas school shooting
- Will Smith Oscars
- Roe v Wade
Top Movies in 2022 by World Box Office
These are the ones - nine Sequels with a distinct lack of imagination (we will give James Cameron a pass on this one). A Billion for Minions… slow clap.
China’s Zhang Chiyu’s Moon Man “tells the story of “the last human in the universe” as an astronaut finds himself stranded on the moon after an asteroid seems to wipe out life on Earth.” Wikipedia. It's a comedy of course. It was based on the new Webtoon Moon You, which is entirely readable and reminiscent of the best issues of the French and Euro-influenced Heavy Meta Magazine.
The MEME of 2022
This Day in 1923, 100 Years Ago, New York Times
The 21st Swans — Your 2023 Grey Swans Wanted
This year we’d like to do something different and make the 21st swans, your predictions. Using the three criteria we described above, create your own Grey Swan predictions and measures. It’s our member-generated Grey Swans. Simply submit your 21 Swans Contribution here (with a small prediction collector too) and we will post in early January. Submit yours here: https://bit.ly/gsg21swans
Grey Swan Guild — Join of 50 Shades of Grey Thinkers
Hopefully, some of you will think about joining our collective that tries to make sense of the world and the future.
We are a post-modern version of the Guild — this is what we like to do:
- Coming in 2023 GSG Discord (replacing Slack and WhatsAPP) https://discord.com/greyswanguild — wait for your invite.
- Learn: https://www.greyswanguild.org/
- Read: GSG Newsletter Wraps and More: https://greyswanguild.medium.com
- News Watch: GSG Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/greyswanguild
- Grey Swan Guild Participation Register — step up and take a Guild leadership[ of guest role: https://bit.ly/gsgparticipationregister2023
Join us for Norway Month — January 2023’s Featured Guild City in Oslo/Bergen and come to the Guild’s Feature City Town Hall January 25th.
