The E World Cometh, Again — Planes, Trains and Automobiles that go zing in the night. The possibilities and the questions of how EV’s will impact the planet and wherever you live
Edition 14, Vol 2, The Grey Swan Guild News Wrap — April 8, 2022
This week’s lead editor is @RobTyrie, with submissions from the deep thinkers of the Grey Swan Guild, a virtual think tank that does stuff like this with gasoline, and other safer, more carbon-neutral formats of energy.
Humans and vehicles are intrinsically bound. From the first inventions and innovations around fire and the wheel, humans have found ways to move themselves and their stuff, faster, farther, higher and cheaper over and over again throughout history.
There is a revolution in EV’s going on, and this week we will dive into the transition to electric vehicles, and the reasons why it’s happening. We will also explore whether they will really save us money when we use them to get around to anywhere we want to go.
The age of the internal combustion engine, invented in the 1840's by intrepid hobbyists and engineers, has had a massive impact on the planet by efficiently moving people around on 1 or more wheels, wings and rotors. Cars and Trucks. Over 150 years — of cranking, turning, spinning. Of, spewing pollution, carbon and power into the atmosphere and our ecology. It is not lost on our editors that there is an irony that EV’s are coming back after losing out over 100 years ago. In 1899, 90% of taxis in NYC were electric and battery-powered. Imagine. Those cars had market-share for over 30 years. In the 90’s, California, policies came close to bearing down on gas-powered polluting cars and almost created a new industry of electric cars, starting with GM’s EV-1. That didn't work out because of… oil wars. Still, this is a wave of change that keeps flowing like energy across high tension power lines. It took 2 decades but they’re back to stay this time.
Across the world in 2022, there are over a billion passage cars in operation and in 2022 more than 80,000,0000 cars were produced. In 2021, approximately 21.41 million passenger cars and 4.67 million commercial vehicles were produced in China. In the US, around 14 million cars were sold including ~900,000 purely electric Tesla Elonmobiles. In Q1 2022, Tesla’s production hit over 400,000 cars, and with the new Euro factory and continued expansion in China, Elon’s folly will be well above 1M cars this year. Economists and Investment Bankers will start drawing the curves to show the cross-over in our switch from gas guzzlers to EVs — which seems inevitable and predictable according to Goldman Sachs. Just think what may happen if governments move and conspire to keep oil and gas prices high until the transition occurs.
Motor vehicles from the motorized unicycle to jumbo jets and nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are one of the largest and most complex enterprises embarked upon by humans all for the sake of moving from point A to point B. They influence government, societies, culture and imagination.
In the last 2 decades, there has been a set of confluent forces that are finally driving change in the ways we move and travel. While the use of nuclear power in big boats is not too surprising, the time it has taken to get back to electric vehicles, or what we snappily call EVs, has been over 100 years, it's back to the future for the world of vehicles. The interactive forces for change are becoming clearer:
- Reduce Human-caused Climate Change
- Reducing Pollution, Demand for liveable cities
- High-Density city living and urban migration
- High cost of oil and gas (with shocks)
- The efficiency of capitalism seeking profits
- The efficiency of moving people and stuff around cheaply
- Safety systems to protect humans from dying or killing each other with vehicles
- Demand for accessible low-cost cars and shared vehicles
“What if we fail to stop the erosion of cities by automobiles? What if we are prevented from catalyzing workable and vital cities because the practical steps needed to do so are in conflict with the practical steps demanded by erosion?
There is a silver lining to everything.
In that case we Americans will hardly need to ponder a mystery that has troubled men for millennia: What is the purpose of life? For us, the answer will be clear, established and for all practical purposes indisputable: The purpose of life is to produce and consume automobiles” Jane Jacobs
Over the last 10 years, there have been arguments back and forth as to whether electric power is greener and less expensive for economies. With our current energy crisis, those arguments start to sound silly. It’s pretty amazing how gas in the US at $8 bucks a gallon has caused buying behaviours to change.
All over, there is interest in EVs and it’s not just cars. It’s unicycles, kick scooters, bicycles, motorcycles, cars, trucks, race cars, boats, planes, trains, helicopters and dirigibles. It seems our engineers are looking at everything with a gas engine and replacing it with an electric motor with a battery. Have you seen the new 9.9 HP outboard motors for that tin boat at the lake house?
We worry a lot about Lithium but… have a lithium… hydrogen cars came out, went out and even though sales have yet to take off there will be more hydrogen battery science in the future and more hydrogen cars eventually.
“Toyota and Honda lead the hydrogen-powered car market, but it’s an uphill battle against competitors peddling battery-powered electric vehicles. In 2018, 2,300 hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles were sold in the USA — less than 1% of the number of electric cars sold, according to InsideEVs, which covers electric vehicle news — USA Today
Governments are encouraging change with investments, taxes, simple policies like rebates for e-cars, and more complicated ones like the banning of ICE car sales, that have been enacted in places. For example, in Germany and Canada, it will not be possible to buy a new gas-powered car by 2040. Within 20 years. Most G20 countries will surely follow suit.
It has both us and the Guild thinking because the changes and challenges are hopped up in the news cycle, which, like the rapidly evolving e-formula race series, seems to be speeding up. That’s exponential growth for you, it sneaks up on a human.
With all that change, there will be consequences good and bad. And at this speed, grey swans may emerge too. What are they?
Will this change be good for the world, cities and society or will there be middling returns and just a shifting of wealth from one set of automakers to other. Some big questions should be on your mind?
- Will EV’s make us happier and healthier? Seriously?
- What will the impact be on the electrical grid and power production? Will there ever be the right charging station in the right spot?
- Is it safe to be riding around for hours exposed to a whack of electrical power and a magnetic field zipping along at 60MPH?
- What will be done with all those flammable lithium blocks and with all the corresponding heavy metals?
- What other battery tech will move to replace the current batteries available now?
- Will traffic patterns change in cities and between cities?
- What is the whole carbon footprint of using an electric vehicle?
- Is this just the end of the luxury of personal vehicles?
- When will you get on a commuter flight to New York or London on a plane with the same motor in it that you pulled apart as a kid in your basement to see how it worked?
- Why are most of the cars priced above $40k when China and India are building vehicles for 10 times less of your hard-earned income?
- Will equity occur and will we mandate this technology for all the needs of society and have them available to more than just the rich?
Let's take a Grey Swan Guild look at all EVs that are coming. The ones that roll, float and fly. As usual, we are inspired to take a look at the news and what's emerging and changing. And, in this case, because we are thinking of cars etc, let’s Wrap and Roll.
The Great
1.Flying Cars. Finally? Seriously? The “Jetson”. We can hear the conversation now — “What should we call it?” .. there is a a pause and all 4 engineers say “The Jetson!” at once —
2.Electric Motor Cycles The Live Wire Competition… slick. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/north-america-the-time-for-electric-motorcycles-has-arrived-800770812.html
3. This racing class is getting better and better. And it happened inside your city limits. We can wait until they add Robo-Pace Cars. What could go wrong? Formula E — when we drive, we like to go fast — https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/rome-streets-close-for-2022-formula-e-race.html
4. Big Trains… not just Electric — Battery Powered — This is an interesting initiative — moving big trains to battery-driven in the chase for zero emissions. This prototype cuts diesel fuel costs significantly. “Housed in a traditional locomotive body, the new battery system drives the axles of the train and uses the kinetic energy of the train’s braking to partially recharge the battery”. // The Guardian
The world’s first battery-electric freight train was unveiled at an event in Pittsburgh on Friday, amid a fresh attempt by some US lawmakers to slash carbon emissions from rail transport in order to address the climate crisis.
Wabtec, the Pittsburgh-based rail freight company, showed off its locomotive at Carnegie Mellon University as part of a new venture between the two organizations to develop zero emissions technology to help move the 1.7bn tons of goods that are shipped on American railroads each year.
The Good
1.Currently, only 2% of new vehicles are electric. But by 2040, 58% of new cars will be electric. Transportation contributes about 30% of global carbon emissions. This must be great for reducing emissions, yes?
2.The bankers at Goldman Sachs are calling out that 40% of cars sold in 2040 will be EVs. That pretty much changes the planet as we know it. It’s Goldman, they work long hours to do this research. And they have great big clients that are car companies that pay them for this research. Maybe the alignment is good. And, likely it will make some people very rich. It happens.
3.Your first EV — $39k USD — Hyundai Iqoniq 5 — It’s an SUV — that goes fast… 0–100km 5 secs… and 340hp — — it will tow that camper. It is the right future — Video, and happy reviewers. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/reviews/video-hyundai-ioniq5-wants-to-be-the-affordable-everyday-ev/
The Bad
1.New math required. This all must be cleared up… the real cost of ownership and the overall cost to society. It should be created by institutions with scientific and economic expert oversight. The public and government need to know the true costs and externalities of EVs. It’s about time.
2.Sold out: why Australia doesn’t have enough electric vehicles to go around
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/27/sold-out-why-australia-doesnt-have-enough-electric-vehicles-to-go-around
3. How about looking at radically different approaches to rolling out millions of EVs that will make a difference. In the US as we noted the EHummer is ready for market. Meanwhile, in China the Hongguang is a K car. A “Kigidasha” car. That is, small, light and useful. This mini car is a different thought and policy practice to get people to shift behaviour. Not only does it cost less than $5K USD, it weighs just 1250lbs. The Hummer fat guy is over 4,500 lbs, and its batteries are 20x heavier than the HG Little one. It’s pretty clear who is doing the right thing for the planet. Go East. Go East.
The Ugly
1.That's a lot of crapola that burns. With some 12 million tonnes of lithium-ion batteries ending their car life by 2030, the race is on to find a feasible recycling program. https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/with-145-million-electric-cars-by-2030-what-are-we-going-to-do-with-the-batteries/
2. With innovation comes new capabilities that have to be measured — we know this is not about EV’s as directly but, the safety of these vehicles has to happen and this is a riveting story of the first pedestrian (and cyclist) killed by an autonomous EV. When there are over 200,000 auto-related deaths, we wonder why one has our attention. This is the nature of the “truely” impactful change. We have to pay attention. //Wired https://www.wired.com/story/uber-self-driving-car-fatal-crash/
The Grey Zone of Uncertainty
1.What do we do with all those batteries? Will they hurt us? There isn’t a cost-effective and safe recycling method for spent EV batteries and they’re full of Li and Co, toxic minerals that are sometimes mined using slave labor. Also, processing these minerals can cause environmental damage. The good news is we are way smarter about toxic waste and the diseases they give us than ever before. Remember when the doc’s used to give us mercury as a quick picker-upper? More on the issues releated to this from Wired.
Also, with the supply chain disruptions on minerals like cobalt, we really cannot afford to NOT figure out how to recycle these batteries. There was even a HeroX competition to crowdsource ideas for recycling Li batteries
https://www.herox.com/BatteryRecyclingPrize?from=explore
2.Will our electric grid handle the spike in EV charging stations that will be required? According to the NY Times, “If every American switched over to an electric passenger vehicle, analysts have estimated, the United States could end up using roughly 25 percent more electricity than it does today.”
3. The biggest badest EV is an e-Hummer. Seriously. It’s big, it’s bold, it has a million horses and could be deployed to Mars if it was up to GM. The hummer is a thing. “There’s nothing else like it, which is exactly the reason people have always bought Hummers. GM is convinced mixing that with the widely admired GMC brand, loads of technology, a side order of social responsibility — and a soupçon of “Don’t ask. You can’t afford it” — make the GMC Hummer the ideal vehicle to launch its leap into electric vehicles.” https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/mark-phelan/2022/04/07/gmc-hummer-electric-pickup-porsche-mercedes-amg-suvs/9476887002/
Tapestry
Chart of the week — Lots of Cars. Lots.
The “Oh My” Chart of the Week — Everything changes with gas at 7.60 a gallon yes?
Movie of the Week — The Revenge of The Electric Car (2011)
Note: 38-Year-old Elon is in this. Fascinating. It’s easy to talk about him producing 400,000 cars, try understanding him at 100 cars.
Lexicon — Range Anxiety
Range anxiety is what an electric vehicle (EV) driver feels when the battery charge is low, and the usual sources of electricity are unavailable. It sparks a fear of getting stranded somewhere, which adds time, inconvenience, and stress to a journey. Imagine yourself in the Jetson Flying Car. That must open the door to Range Stress Disorder.
What about the Hyperloop thing — it is electric too
Hint… it's a thing of science fiction beauty. Currently one of the Hyperloop projects in the world got additional funding this month. The Edmonton to Calgary project has received $550 Million dollar of new money. Broughton Capital Group and China-East Resources Import & Export is getting involved make a master engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) arrangement to support the project’s construction.
Tesla Trivia — WildFire Superpowers
It is called “Biodefesemode”. This mode came in handy during the devastating Western U.S. wildfires throughout 2020. It’s only available with Model S and X cars that have a HEPA filtration system that automatically turns the car into a safe breathing space.
Will that stove and sink make you happier? The Rivian team thinks that can nail the tailgater segment with this embedded camp kitchen.
Video of the Week Lotus Evitr anyone?
Dream EV for the Gentle Rich
Meme of the week
List of the Week. Efficiency
Most Efficient Electric Vehicles (Energy Use Per 100 Miles)
1. 2022 Tesla Model 3 RWD: 25 kWh
2. 2022 Lucid Air Grand Touring w/19-inch wheels: 26 kWh
3. 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV: 28 kWh
4. 2022 Hyundai Kona EV: 28 kWh
5. 2022 Tesla Model S: 28 kWh
6. 2022 Tesla Model Y Long Range: 28 kWh
7. 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV: 29 kWh
8. 2022 Kia EV6 RWD: 29 kWh
9. 2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5 RWD: 30 kWh
10. 2022 Kia Niro EV: 30 kWh
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