The Grey Swan Guild News Wrap — The Week That Was, Friday 16, July 2021 edition #26 — Theme: Post Pandemic Thinking

The unevenness of thinking even when we are in the same move. This is really the meme of the week from The Wrap. Repeatedly, Bill Murray always leads thought and fashion in his $2,000 shirt. Source: The Verge — Submit funny captions to rob.tyrie@gmail.com

Grey Swan Guild News Wrap Edition: July 16, 2021 #26 of Vol. 1

Each week we publish a series of stories and headlines we’re tracking in the Grey Swan Guild’s Global League of Sensemakers Newsroom. We think of them as ground zero for ideas, news and data that may become viral. Here is The Great, the Good, the Bad, the Ugly, the Undecided and the Tapestry of what we observed this week. Bill Murray is rumoured to be a subscriber of this weekly Grey Swan Guild Publication.

Check the Grey Swan Calendar — There are Ateliers coming up, Sensemaking sessions and ramping up for the final calendar quarter and high holidays are upon us again. Your valuable time will be appreciated as we gather to learn, share and create real-time sensemaking in action to create together. Creations like “The Wrap” and the First Wave Publication were generated from these collaborations. They are contagious. The next Grey Swan Guild All-Member Atelier on July 3rd is: Tech Swans Applied * Ten interesting exponential advancements in technology with new use cases & human benefits. Let’s make the promise of technology be real.

This week that was uncovered shifts as the summer balms progress in the Northern Hemisphere and at the same time South Africa, Argentina, Australia feel the bite of their winters. There has to be a feeling that some communities and individuals are rushing to fast to declare the Covid-19 Pandemic over, but the data shows that this is happening at different paces in different places in the world depending on experiences locally in 2020.

It’s more logical to consider this phase as ‘post-pandemic thinking’ rather than ‘post-pandemic’. The difference is to accept that the human race now has over 18 months of experience and facts and will need tools, metrics and measures to help plan for the next quarter and the next data. It is good to first determine the time slice considered while trying to apply critical hope to future-proofing your interests and organizations.

The artful tapestry that made the news we covered includes real and surreal space travel, the re-opening of the sports world in big and small tournaments, summer blockbuster movies, tornadoes, killing floods and epic rains, protests in Cuba, Broken MMA legs, Fanless Olympics, Free Britney, Masks off in Britain and Masks on in LA. Back inside restaurants and in the heads of people experiencing anxiety, fear, stress and depression related to pandemic living and dying. It’s not all Photo Dumps, Euro’s, Own-Goals, Defibrillators, cannabis therapy for Olympians and music at the bandshell. We are worried and uncertain about Cuba, vaccine passports, vaccine passport fraud, varients, rapid reopening and necessarily, back-to-school thoughts for September.

Meanwhile, let’s Wrap.

Why not join us on Sunday, July 18th at 8am (PST) | 11am (EST) | 4pm BST on Clubhouse to explore this wrap, have your say and engage with your favourite Grey Swan Guild Wrap Editors including Sylvia Gallusser, Sean Moffitt, Agustín Borrazás, Rob Tyrie, Ben Thurman, Louise Mowbray, and Antonia Nicols.

Also, check the Grey Swan Calendar for upcoming events including Atelier #4 — Tech Swans Applied on the 23th July (this was postponed).

The Great 😇

Pure Relief — Photo Source: Associated Press

1.Here’s to you, Mrs Robinson. In other famous openings, we are back in the movie theatres and summer blockbusters. In the US, Canada and Europe, as summer traditions are being buoyed by in-person theatre-going, experiences coming back into the plan. In locations with lockdowns that have exceeded 200 days like in Ontario Canada, the returns seem in demand. Black Widow was Marvel’s American straight pitch fastball that nailed it with big box-office and streaming numbers for a worldwide total of more than $200M USD. That’s just over 5,000 BTC for those counting in the studio audience. That’s not the record for 2021, which belongs to Hi Mom, at $822M. It‘s a movie where a woman travels back in time to befriend her own mother in an attempt to make her life better. As it was the 1920’s, we are expecting escapism films, musicals and fantasies, which will hit the spot for the next year. Still. Mr Heinlein would not be amused. 🕷

2.Sweet Caroline and so good, so good footy. The UEFA Euro’s 2020 had millions of fans' attention around the world as one of the world’s largest sports events by any count or infecting our imaginations. At the peak, over 30M people were watching the finals. It is clear that sports fans have different risk tolerance both in their betting on the Dutch or the English and appearing in person at various stadiums across Europe as far east as Baku, Azerbaijan and St. Pete’s, Russia. Some stadiums, like those in Copenhagen and Budapest, were sold out with little masking and no social distancing. Others were at half capacity even with pressure from the UEFA bosses who make money on the gates. Wembley topped off at over 60,000 fans plus the yobs who lept fences and broke in to fill available seats from the 30,000 empty ones. It was pleasurable, thrilling, surprising and shocking to see all of that, but it was literally surpassed by the drama of the beautiful game and, unexpectedly the spectacle was life resuscitation. Congratulations to the lads from England and Italy, it’s definitely one for the history books if only for the most own-goals ever. In the weeks following the tourney, the natural experiments we can learn from will be followed and guide outdoor entertaining everywhere depending on case counts. Footy fans really took one for the whole team.⚽

3.Play it again Sam. When re-thinking changes lives. This feels great and something to be grateful for all at once. In Maine, a high school class donated almost all of the $8,000 they raised for their senior dream trip. This is a post-pandemic pattern that bodes well in the future, helping others and altruism. There is a good way to measure it. A strong sense of community is another kind of vaccination against threats to instability. “The bulk of students’ earnings was donated to the Island Community Fund in aid of residents whose livelihoods were broadsided by the COVID-19 pandemic”. // Source: The Good News Network. 🏆

The Good 😀

Photo by Gautier Salles on Unsplash

1.Singing in the Rain. Travel and tourism slowly come back. The Eiffel Tower reopens after eight months of COVID closures. The magnificent iron Eiffel Tower reopened this past Friday after an eight-month shut down because of the COVID-19 pandemic, its longest closure since World War Two. Makes thousands want to travel to and from gay Paris. You can take your skip-the-line 90-minute tour for 45 Euros. That’s a small bit of money after a such long time ma belle cheri. 🗼

2.I will walk 500 Miles. Looking for a Fun, Innovative Franchise? In the midst of another conversation about The Future of Work we are thinking about what might be different about lunchtime once people go back to work. The “aha moment” will come with thinking about contactless prepared food distribution. Do you remember the Automats in the US that are pretty standard in Japan and Hong Kong and the Jetsons set-up too?

Horn and Hardart built Automats exploded in popularity in New York after the 1918 Spanish flu and remained popular until the 1970s. Unfortunately, the operating and payment technology became outdated, fast food menus improved, and Automats disappeared by the 90s. But, they might be coming back for similar reasons again in these contactless times.

Stratis Morfogen, a restaurateur who has opened The Brooklyn Dumpling Shop has a menu that leans to fusion, with fillings like pastrami, bacon cheeseburger, lamb gyro, along with a handful of spring rolls that come in options like lobster ginger garlic and Peking duck. The dumpling shop is open 24/7 and offers 32 different kinds of dumplings including not and cold items for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Yum Yum Dim Sum, is the new Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner?

They are currently open in the East Village of NYC and have plans to franchise 500 locations. Ordering online is available of course (Because 2021). 🍣

3.When the moon hits your eye, that Amore. World’s First Underwater Vegetable Garden Opens Growing Lettuce and Basil in Perfect Temperatures. Called Nemo’s Garden, the project was launched by the Ocean Reef Group as a means to experiment with food supply diversity, if climatic changes make parts of Italy too dry to farm — or any of the deserts by water that exists on Earth today. If they can add wheat and oregano, these are bound to become pizza farms. Food security anxiety reduction is post-pandemic thinking. as is considering climate change maybe. 🍅

The Bad 😬

Not off-planet — Photo Source: DW

1.Chain, Chain Chain. COVID: Why are so many people against vaccination? The number of people who are against getting a COVID-19 vaccine seems to be going up, even as ever more people get vaccinated. What do they base their arguments on? They are more reasonable than reported and still not based on modern science optimizing for the community. There is always risk with vaccines, but adverse effects are rare. For the selfish individual, de-risking your life at other’s expense always seems reasonable. But, if we remember the poetry, we should also remember, no one is an island. 💉

2.We were the Champions. Dropping 33 places in a major world ranking, Rich Toronto’s cachet as a world-class city for technological innovation is fading fast, according to one major global ranking, and analysts are placing bets against the city. It is time for some post-pandemic systems thinking to lift the city up from 43rd spot back to the top 10 where it was in 2019. 14 Canadian cities fell 95 spots on average. Now, this is as much happening because American cities have improved that much. The World Innovation Index Tracks 162 measures ranging from equality, sustainability, mobility, internet access, to culture and leisure. It’s not a race it is a journey. There are lots of lists out there. (It is good that Toronto is # 9 in the world for “The Most You Can Do on A Layover” for the future Tony B’s out there. Of course, with measurement comes great responsibilities. Innovation has been clearly shown to be a driver of wealth creation, and good economics in companies and cities. Tourism does it too, natch. 🏆

3. We all need a song or Our Beds are Burning. It ain't over until we can sing again.WHO’s chief scientist warns the pandemic isn’t slowing down. While vaccination levels in some countries are reducing severe cases and hospitalizations, large parts of the world face oxygen shortages, a lack of hospital beds and higher mortality, said the WHO’s Soumya Swaminathan . Obvious more to think about in the transition. Meanwhile in Quebec, the provincial government is holding a $2M lottery to nudge people to get a jab. Take a shot, get a ticket to win.👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 // Source: deccanherald.com:

The Ugly 😱

Germany Flooding — Source: Reuters

1.Like a Hurricane. Tornados near Toronto, killer flooding and torrential rains in Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands. It is plain awful and sharpening the cries for policies to react to climate change. This isn't driven by the pandemic, but, maybe it’s time to shift focus in disaster responses and rethinking risk. Insurance isn't going to cover it. 🌩

2.A bad case of loving you. Good to know — the probable reasons the criminals use Bitcoin for reasons for ransom payments. They love it for the wrong reasons. Human behaviour is somewhat unpredictable, but these are still criminals. They are using security by obscurity and ease of movement of assets. But it is all trackable with some patience and resources. This may be a good mission for replacing the war on terror budgets. And, because of this knowledge… all governments are being negligent in not policing the use of Bitcoin for illegal gains. Read on Mr. Smith, and let the policy wonks prevail. The world needs this ugliness to stop. 💰

3. Country roads, take me home. When those homes get too expensive problems to happen. Businesses can’t get workers. Mountain towns that have had the pandemic drive instant shift in the economy. In this case, it is caused by rich migrants to beautiful small towns with bandwidth. As a result home prices go up and workers can afford to live there anymore so they move. And then there are no workers to fill jobs unless the cost of housing goes down or wages go up. There’s a hole in the bucket. Call Liza. It is time time to build low-cost housing right now to avoid inflation. Or maybe it is time to let wages float. No one said it’s easy to manage an economy. 🏡

The Grey Zone of Uncertainty 🦢

1. Don't Try Suicide. Knock-on effects emerging. Deaths by overdose rise in 2020. This is a crisis that is a White Swan. So much to sort out. Correlation and Causation debates come immediately to mind. Outliers or proper inspection? The Economist reports on 2020 American drug overdoses. How much can be contributed to any one or all of the pandemic, mental health, healthcare, lifestyle, crime, the pharma, and government handout wackiness? The bad news — record overdoses. The uncertainty, what is the cause and what are actions we can take. To early to know. ☠

2.Get Me to the Greek. Early Travel Stories From the Road. Mixed emotions and views. Anxiety, Fear, Desire, Lust, Excitation, Titillation, and yes some taboo level fetish and to cap it all disgust. Still, the travellers will travel. A journalist goes to Athens to gather just like we used to for thousands of years. The picture of the amphitheatre is work clicking the link alone. These travellers will need to psychoanalyze generously. Oh, what book will be writing like the diaspora in the 20s like Stein, Hem, and Fitz. Will the travellers and the nomads be this decade’s Lost Hybrid Generation? None the none, we think vicarious travelporn, a la Tony Bourdain, the ultimate road runner, will be a real trend in 2021 and 2022. 🎭

3.Dance me to the end of love, with masks on or off? It looks like Mask Polarization will stay a thing for the next 6 months. The press is lining it up with the Johnston’s UK dropping of government mask mandate. And immediately 100 physicians publish to the Lancet, to demand masks on. The Lancet publishes opinions as fast as science so it has to be read carefully. Meanwhile in LA, masks are becoming mandatory reversing the looseness in three months. It’s a Mask-On, Mask-Off world for a while. 😷

Tapestry

The mosaic of ideas and images generated by the Zeitgeist and her agents.

Emerging — The Young and the Restless in Cuba

In clear reports, public protests against the government occurred and unrest continues among food and goods shortages. The government cut of internet access and media are reporting confusing messages. We know there's a problem here the pandemic, economic downturn made harder on the poorer people with the massive drop off from tourism. Couple all that with a transitional government without a clear strong leader. It’s a powder keg.

Meme of the Week

#PhotoDump — pushing back again brand boredom— an uncurated, undesigned, random set of photos, may turn into found art everywhere. It is a meme Insta now… an #Instameme. Do yourself a favour, set a search up for the tag on Insta now.

Source: The Zeitgeist and Input Mag

A|B Charts of the Week (Vote)

A. Recovery Trends. Is the world returning to pre-pandemic life in general? Find out with the Economist’s interactive tracker. Signs in other countries, just say no. (Vote)

Source the Economist Normalcy Tracker

B. Inflation The 10 Year Inflation rate in the US. What we worry? Take a look at the past before extrapolating too quickly but not back the the 70’s. (Vote)

The Pandemic, The Economy, Government Programs, and Human Behaviour are driving inflation to a 10 year high. Hopefully, the chief economists have a plan.

Term of the Week

Ecocide — Global problems require global solutions. A definition of ecocide is in the process ratified now by world bodies and nations. The Independent Expert Panel for the Legal Definition of Ecocide Now a world court needs to be set up to judge eco-crimes. Ecocide would be akin to genocide or war crimes. This may take 100 years but, it is the only direction the planet can go. The Nation-State has proven it is not the right construct to act as a steward for the planet or impact of unconstrained exploration of ecology for the benefit of the few. Nations can figure out how to export garbage, but they have a hard time with planning for zero garbage. This is the long road to sustainability. Global problems need global regulations with judges and enforcement. We need much more than the trivialities that Green Peace chases.

Ecocide “ Unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts.” The Independent Expert Panel for the Legal Definition Ecocide.

Photos of the Week

Tornado Impact, Barrie Ontario Canada, 50 home and 5 Kms of Damage and injury and shock, July 15, 2021 #photodump

Videos of the Week

Branson went to US Space this week. When Bezos goes next week with his son, we think the public will see the customer experience different differentiators between going on a very high plane ride and taking off on a rocket and go to the internationally accepted definition of Space 10 miles farther. So what's the difference between 52 miles and 62 miles… well let’s say it’s a lot of space. We watched the movie Gravity this week. It really shows the action is very clear at 400 miles into real space where the ISS is. Still we are pretty sure now why Branson had to go first. It’s a better story for both the Rocketeers. Dare to compare.

That’s the Wrap! Your thoughts?

Why not join us on Sunday, 18 July 2021 at 8:00am (PST) | 11am (EST) | 4pm (BST) on Clubhouse led by Howard A Fields to engage with your favourite Grey Swan Guild Wrap Editors, including Sylvia Gallusser, Sean Moffitt, Agustín Borrazás, Rob Tyrie, Ben Thurman, Louise Mowbray and Antonia Nicols.

See you next week for Edition #26 where we will ponder and ruminate on the week that was, what it means for the future and Wrap it for you.

The GSG Medium is The Message

Visit our Medium channel every Friday for a weekly wrap on the world’s biggest challenges and other fresh articles and points of view The Guild is sharing. Please drop by our Grey Swan Guild website (greyswanguild.org) for more publications and articles about how we make sense of the world ongoing and also the raft of possibilities to participate as a Sensemaker.

This Week’s Grey Swan News Wrap Editor: Toronto-phile Rob Tyrie, with help from the Editorial Team: Sylvia Gallusser, Sean Moffitt, Louise Mowbray, Agustín Borrazás, Ben Thurman, and Antonia Nicols.

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