Grey Swan Guild News Wrap — Thematic for The Week That Was -”Winter is Coming”
Grey Swan Guild — News Wrap Edition: #38 of Vol. 1
We decided this week to serve up the theme behind our weekly News Wrap in advance. Thus, this post represents the opening act of a three part venture, ahead of dishing up our finest 25 newsy items of interest on Friday October 8th (The Wrap), and before hosting our open forum discussion on Sunday, October 10th (The Forum).
Selfishly this change gives our editors time to tease out their concept ahead of time before the madness of the end-of-the-week deadline rush. Selflessly, it allows you, our valued readers, to see the forest of what is happening before we expose you to the many trees of the week that was.
After due consideration, we have landed on our clarion call for this week’s 38th edition of the Grey Swan News Wrap “Winter is Coming”. In this week’s eventual Wrap, we will curate the most interesting and provocative news stories and then weave a through line to make sense of it all as we explore the great, good, bad and truly ugly dimensions of the “winter season”.
The Theme : “Winter is Coming — A New Season for Discovery, Breakthrough, Despair or Grey Swans” in Three Parts
We have kept the nature of our theme intentionally broad given the wide palette of articles and subjects our editors are currently considering for this week.
Winter is definitely coming. For those in the northern hemisphere, the winter season is approaching, in the southern hemisphere, it’s just starting to heat up.. But figuratively, winter is coming for us all as we grapple with a range of different issues. A change of seasons always brings with it a time for new thinking.
From a valence perspective, the positivity felt for winter is in the eye of the beholder.
According to Buzzfeed:
Winter can be bleak — it comes in last place for being the “best season”, “time to have a birthday” and “best weather” (15%, 12% & 9% of the vote respectively).
Winter improves its outlook a little bit for being 2nd in the best season for “romance” and “fashion” (35% & 20%) and 3rd place for “prettiest season” and “best to take a vacation” (both 18%).
However Winter rebounds and shines brightest for being in 1st place for the season of the “best Holidays” and for the “best movie launches” (70% & 42% of the popular vote).
And so it is with our interpretation of current news & societal challenges and future Grey Swans & big shifts. These could really go in two different directions — bleak like Winnipeg in January or sparkly like a Norman Rockwell Chirstmas holiday scene.
To quote Shelley on the positive side of our societal winter’s quandary:
“O, wind, if winter comes, can spring be far behind?”
To invoke Jon Snow of Game of Thrones lore on the foreboding side of the future and the need for vigilance:
“Winter is coming, we know what’s coming with it. We can learn to live with the wildlings, or we can add them to the army of the dead.”
Replace ‘wildlings’ with consequences and ‘army of the dead‘ ’with solutions for the future and you kinda get the drift of our theme.
This week’s Wrap editors Sean Moffitt & Gina Clifford have broken down the theme into three constituent parts.
Part I : Climate Change/Weather Change
Increasingly as we have surfaced headlines and research over the past year. Climate has become a centralizing worry, competing with the pandemic for the spotlight. We apparently aren’t alone in the recent uptick in our extreme concern as revealed by Pew Research Center’s 17 country survey:
Even though it smacks of Short Termism (our last News Wrap theme), our changing seasonal weather patterns and the unseasonably hotter or colder temperatures make us think anew about the fragility of the planet and the continuing challenge of climate change and its effect on flora and fauna.
Part II — Other Ticking Time Bombs and Warnings to Be Vigilant On/Progress Being Made
It seems everywhere our society is built on a tower of stilts with the forces of change and winds of time trying to take our legs out from underneath us. Widening the aperture, The World Economic Forum has considered a range of existential 5–10 year global threats.
Which of these will make us worry more about our impending doom ,or give us pause to breathe a little less anxiously:
- Doomsday Clocks, the Future of War, Mass Destruction and the Nuclear Age?
- The Inability to Govern Places Effectively Due to Populism, Infodemics, Lack of Community Ties, Budget Stress and Undemocratic Actions?
- Children’s Health and Reversal of Life Expectancy & Mental Health?
- The Dark Side of Social Media, A.I., Polarized Views and Cancel Culture?
- Refugee Crises — massive displacement of people for climate, religious and war reasons?
- East vs. West — the Silk Road vs. Pax Americana?
- Reigning in the New Big Industry of Worry — Big Tech?
Part III. Post-Pandemic One Year Outcomes That Could Go Two Ways
Public opinion ranges across countries on when we can reach some type or new post-COVID equilibrium. According to an April’21 IPSOS survey, close to half of us believe a normal life akin to pre-COVID is more than a year away; 8% of us believe it will never be quite the same.
Where will we all be sitting October 8th, 2022 after all the pandemic-driven dust has settled?
- Economic outlooks — V, U, L, W & K shaped recoveries or the edge of collapse?
- Future of Work Prognosis — Mass Resignations or Double Digit Unemployment?
- Digital Work Life — Automation & its Associated Benefits or the Dehumanization of the Workplace?
- Mental Health — Sensitivities & Advancements in Diagnosis & Treatment or the Constant State of Stress & Anxiety Grey Swan?
- Global Health — Dealing with COVID as something endemic/part of life or frustrating & lethal new variants?
The Backdrop — Grey Swan Guild Activity
Set across this important News Wrap effort are six activities that may raise to the level of conscious consideration and interest in your minds.
A. Winter is Coming — The Discussion
As we have done every Sunday since the start of the year, we are gathering our editorial team (and hopefully you) for an 11am ET discussion of the Wrap theme and what we have surfaced. Come join with us for one of the smarter hours on Clubhouse.
B. The Future & Sensemaking Series - Episode #3
You can bet we will be cross pollinating our Wrap with our stable of futurists and change agents who will be discussing “How to Sense the Future” on Friday, October 8th at 1pm ET.
C. Feature Guild City of the Month : Boston
We are inviting the smartest Beantowners to join our global movement of thinkers, dreamers and doers. Chicago was our Feature Guild City in August and jumped to be our 3rd ranked city,. Seattle was our September city and rose to 6th. We expect nothing less from the Southies, Northies, Westies and Easties of Massachusetts in October.
Here’s are four calls to action to Boston’s smartest and most passionate:
Kick our Tires: https://www.greyswanguild.org/
Join our Guild: https://bit.ly/gsgsmemberform
Come to our Boston Town Hall October 27th: https://bit.ly/gsgBoston
Become a Global Sensemaker: https://bit.ly/lofsenseform
D. Weathervane #4 — Here to Stay or Going Away
As much as we surface other people’s headlines in the Grey Swan News Wrap, we also conduct our own primary research. Come help us out and chime in on the future of this pandemic:
https://bit.ly/gsgweathervane4
E. Atelier #7 — Swans & Nests
Our most social of monthly Ateliers. It’s simple — meet 12 people, discuss 12 topics, develop 12 outcomes. It’s our version of speed dating for deep thinkers and sensemakers. Join us October 14th 12pm ET: https://bit.ly/gsgatelier7
F. Eight Questions With … Member Profiles
We just introduced an exciting addition to our slate of Medium content this week. We confess our Guild’s true strength is the amazing virtuoso and multi-potentialite talent that we bring into the Guild.
We marvel at how our members think, why they care about what they do and what they produce. Every week, we will bring you two more profiles from some of the 1,900 Grey Swan Guild members from around the world, this week the brilliant Sylvia Gallusser (who is part of our editorial team) was put under the guild-scope. have a read.
CARE TO JOIN US?
Check the Grey Swan Calendar for all the upcoming events and new member onboardings.
Jump immediately to GO and become a member of two different varieties:
An Official Member Form. A Global Sensemaker Form
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