The Hunt for Grey Swans — Top 15 Methods & Frameworks — #15 Multi View Scenarios

Chasing Possibilities, Wild Cards and Extremes by Changing the Compass

Author: Sean Moffitt, Grey Swan Guild Founder and CEO, Cygnus Ventures

“There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.” — Aldous Huxley

Poker. To some, it’s a guilty pleasure — a pastime for the insomniac, the adrenaline junkie, the high roller. But what if we look closer? Poker is something altogether different: an intricate exercise in human psychology and statistical mastery. On one side, it’s pure math and probabilities — Game Theory Optimization (GTO), the science of strategy. On the other, it’s entirely human — Exploitative Strategy, where the game becomes a theater of human error, a place where our biases and tells give away secrets to those who know how to listen. Poker reveals the poles of reason and irrationality. Ignore either one, and the game will devour you.

People dismiss poker, sometimes with a sneer, as the domain of degenerate gamblers. And sure, in many cases, they’re right (click here for a fascinating literature review of the pisychopathology of problematic poker players).. But among the best players, you find a different breed: sharp, perceptive, and disciplined. If poker were just luck, these players wouldn’t dominate. They understand something essential. Poker, unlike chess or bridge, requires us to balance two very different parts of the mind. It’s a mirror of both the scientific and the sociological, with each hand played forcing us to reconcile the two. As Seneca famously said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” This, perhaps, is poker’s unwritten law.

Poker is, in part, a product of its unpredictability. At any given moment, the dynamics of the game shift. The pre-flop cards look promising — Jacks, maybe. But by the river, they’ve gone cold. Early on, you’re riding high, but in the final stretch, you’re “coolered” — blindsided by the variance of chance. Poker, like the weather, fluctuates, but instead of a thermometer, you’re watching stacks of clay chips as your barometer.

The strategy here is dynamic, always in flux. You aren’t just calculating odds or memorizing patterns; you’re feeling the pulse of a moment, accounting for stacks, cards on the board, the psychological state of your opponents. There’s no one-size-fits-all solution for winning. Just as in planning for the future, poker requires flexibility, constant adaptation, and an eye on the long game.

This is where poker and strategic thinking align. Poker teaches us to handle the unknown, just as Multi View Scenarios teach us to navigate uncertain futures. And here, they share the same lessons:

1. Adaptability: In poker and strategy, the answer is never one thing. If you can’t adapt, you’re already behind.
2. Ego and Bias: Both poker and strategic thinking are full of blind spots — personal, cultural, cognitive. In either context, ignorance is costly.
3. Thinking AND Acting: At some point, theory must give way to action. Every hand, every scenario eventually demands a decision.
4. Planning and Proactiveness: Both poker and strategy hinge on external variables and the choices you make in response. Control what you can; respond to the rest.
5. Smart Choices: The smart player, like the smart strategist, knows when to play and when to fold.
6. Objective Evaluation: Ignoring the external factors or downplaying the role and competency of opponents is a quick path to failure.
7. Hedging Against Uncertainty: In poker, as in life, a single path isn’t enough. The true advantage lies in having multiple options.

So, we don’t just look ahead to one future, or three — we consider ten. With Multi View Scenarios, we can build a framework that lets us see, prepare, and act across a range of possibilities. This, then, is the heart of strategy: it’s a game of adaptation, a way to test our thinking against an unknown future. Poker taught us this; now we can apply it.

“A man with money is no match against a man on a determined mission.” ~ Doyle Brunson, the Godfather of Poker

A reminder of the area our continuing Grey Swan series is covering:

Grey Swan Definition: Grey Swans are those unlikely but conceivable forces, capable of being thought about, prepared for, with impacts big enough to shake the world, for better or worse.

The Full Collection of Grey Swan Methods & Frameworks

Method #15: Multi View Scenarios — Changing the Compass

In a world that seems to change faster than we can measure, strategy isn’t the rock-solid thing it once was. Imagine it less as the steadfast Rock of Gibraltar and more as shifting tidal sands, where the ground beneath us keeps moving. The “locked-in” five-year strategy feels almost quaint — a relic of a time when things were simpler, more predictable. Today, a bold vision may still demand a map, but to really navigate, a compass is far better. That’s where Multi View Scenarios comes in: not as a standard tool but as a meta-framework, a way to take in different perspectives and address an unpredictable future.

Multi View Scenarios doesn’t just offer a path — it invites us to ask better questions, to consider multiple futures. Where most tools in our series focus on one central method for surfacing possibilities, Multi View Scenarios steps back, pulling the lens wide to encompass four core concepts:

• Multi-Scenarios — Instead of a single vision of the future, we consider alternative possibilities. We’ve defined ten distinct “futures,” each with unique strengths, limitations, and inherent challenges (visualized above and itemized below).
• Motivators — It’s about understanding what’s driving each scenario. Are we planning - reacting to the future being “done to us”? Or are we preventative — shielding against potential risks? Or perhaps proactive — taking steps that initiate a positive outcome regardless of what’s happening in the world?
• Certainty — Here’s where we make peace with uncertainty. Multi View Scenarios allows for both “best bets” — those most probable choices — and futureproofed strategies that span a spectrum of possible futures.
• Assessment AND Action — It’s not enough to understand where we’re headed; we also need to link this vision directly to action. How will it change our strategies, spark innovation, shift tactics, and refine operations?

Many organizations talk about long-term plans, maybe sketching out three, five, or even ten-year visions. They are in pretend land. In reality, they’re always adapting on the fly whether they admit it or not, pivoting between planning cycles, integrating new data, responding to the unexpected whether the strategy document changes or not. Strategic plans often have to pivot, yet this dynamic planning goes unspoken — almost as if the only way to acknowledge change is to not acknowledge it. Multi View Scenarios allows us to face that reality head-on.

Here’s what we gain by using a wide array of scenarios:

• Filling “fuzzy” gaps in decision-making. When markets turn on a dime, or industries shift overnight, we’re ready to react between planning cycles.
• Seizing opportunities early. New technologies, evolving business models, shifts in customer behavior — Multi View Scenarios gives us the edge, letting us move faster than competitors who rely on traditional planning.
• Creating time for high-level thinking. Multi View Scenarios lifts the strategy development team out of day-to-day demands, giving them time to breathe, step back, and think more expansively.
• Navigating the complex and the uncertain. Traditional planning often crumbles under the weight of complexity. With Multi View Scenarios, we can deal with those “messy” problems that don’t fit neatly into established frameworks.
• Opening the conversation to the unexpected. This tool pushes us to consider extreme scenarios, wild cards and Grey swan possibilities. Ultimately, that’s the point of our entire series of tools — to build strategic muscles that are ready for anything the future might throw our way.

By embracing this kind of dynamic thinking, we’re giving ourselves permission to rethink, revise, and, ultimately, evolve. It’s about putting our finger on the pulse of change — and keeping it there.

“Simply acquiring knowledge is not enough. Wisdom is best viewed from integrating multiple perspectives.”

Invented by: Alexander Fink, Andreas Siebe and Benjamin Hollmann of Scenario Management International AG in the early 2000s as part of their overall scenario planning efforts enunciated in their paper From scenarios to consequences . Their impetus was to balance the development of external and internal-based scenarios in order to interconnect them; to use a variety of scenarios as a basis for strategic early warning processes; and to use scenarios to bridge the gap between strategy, innovation and operations. Sean Moffitt of Cygnus Ventures and Futureproofing excerpted, adapted and labelled Fink’s formative work to create a flexible and exhaustive leadership foresight building effort.

Category: Scenario Planning, Future Thinking Management, Strategy Development, Futureproofing Innovation Management, Strategic Contingeny Planning, Market Assessment

Why we Love It as a Grey Swan Tool: Multi Way Scenarios addresses the way the world really operates beyond most strategic planning efforts. It allows for the wiggle room of possibilities developing, futures evolving differently, and pre-considered contingencies needing to be brought up as replacement efforts. Strategy is no longer dogmatic belief, but strong guidance for winning.

Overcomes the sin of: Strategic Incrementalism — although plenty of effort gets thrown into an organization’s strategic development at a board and executive level, the resulting strategies tend to end up being no more than. plus or minus 15% compared to the previous year. Scenarios allow new wisdom and future thinking to integrate more effectively into a core executive process and make this review cycle more continuous and valuable.

“Ones vision is not a road map but a compass.” — Peter Block

The Ten Scenarios of Multi Way Scenarios:

In the landscape of strategic planning, the old monolithic vision — one rigid, “locked” path to the future — is giving way to something far more complex. We’re advocating for an approach that borrows from military strategy: imagine wargaming teams, like Red Team and Blue Team, tackling ten distinct scenarios, each a unique “field” of possibilities. This isn’t just about single-minded foresight; it’s a multi-lens exercise. It’s about being able to see the future from multiple vantage points and having the humility to say: we don’t know which one will unfold. Here are the ten scenario types:

1. The Avowed Scenario — This is the classic “bet on one.” It’s all about unwavering alignment around a single, likely future. The strength? Confidence, pure and simple — people feel certain. But beware: this mindset can resist change, pushing aside less mainstream ideas that might just hold the key to innovation.
2. The Defensive Scenario — Here, strategy is built like a fortress. The goal? To shore up against the biggest perceived threat or disruption on the horizon. This approach shines a light on vulnerabilities, which is its strength, but it can lack the bold, aspirational vision that truly drives growth.
3. The Quick Reaction Scenario — A balancing act between strategy and operational flexibility. It’s about moving forward while keeping options open in the face of future uncertainties. Think of it as a cautious optimism that aims to “stay the course” without getting too rigid. But the tradeoff? It can feel too tentative, leaving the team wondering where the true commitment lies.
4. The Offensive Scenario — This is the big, bold leap: pursuing the most ideal, high-payoff future. It’s aspirational, designed to rally the troops, and it has immense power as a motivator. The downside? It may gloss over criticism or blind spots in its race toward the “perfect” outcome.
5. The Empowered Scenario — This approach builds in agency at all levels. Here, everyone feels like they’re a part of shaping the future. It’s fantastic for engagement leaders and staff but can lead to overestimating the influence one actually has over broader forces at play.
6. The Safeguard Scenarios — Designed as a safety net, this scenario is all about creating thresholds and triggers for action against specific risks and uncertainties. It’s a valuable way to avoid disaster, but it’s resource-intensive and can stretch resources too thin.
7. The Threat Reduction Scenarios — A crisis mode, purpose-built to minimize top risks. These scenarios don’t wait for uncertainty to strike —they are proactive, bordering on reactive, with an edge toward avoiding danger. But too much emphasis on the threat can detract from long-term vision.
8. The Hedge Scenarios — This is about flexibility above all. It keeps strategy fluid, holding back major decisions until the future is clearer. It’s a savvy choice in times of high uncertainty, but it risks becoming a permanent state of indecision.
9. The Maximization Scenarios — This approach sees every opportunity, everywhere. It’s about maximizing the “positive futures” that could play out. While it opens the door to multiple pathways for success, it can spread teams too thin, with too many eggs in too many baskets.
10. The Creation Scenarios — Here, we’re stepping into possibility itself. This approach is about actively shaping the most beneficial range of outcomes. It’s innovative, engaging the full creative capacity of the organization, but it can miss the practical basics that keep the ship afloat.

The power of these scenarios lies in their diversity. No single approach is “correct”; each brings its own strengths and weaknesses. By running separate scenario teams through these lenses, organizations create a layered, nuanced understanding of the future — a truly multi-dimensional framework. The result? Executives receive a fully fleshed-out map of strategic options, each informed by a unique vision of what might lie ahead.

Multi View Scenarios Work Preceded By:

In the delicate art of scenario planning, each step is like laying down a track that brings an organization closer to seeing the future through a rich, multi-faceted lens. It’s not simply a matter of setting out a few hypothetical situations; it’s a process of refining perspectives, honing vision, and balancing the hard realities with aspirational possibilities. Here’s how it breaks down, one step at a time:

• Scope Out the Scenario Field
  Imagine you’re setting out to survey an unfamiliar landscape. What exactly are you trying to see? Before anything else, organizations need to pinpoint the types of scenarios they want to explore (drawing from categories like the Avowed, Defensive, or Hedge Scenarios) and decide on the focal area — whether it’s a specific industry, technology, or geopolitical trend. This early move defines the future space you’re about to map, laying the foundation for meaningful, relevant scenarios.
• Determine the Future Horizon
  Are you looking five years down the line? Twenty? The time frame is crucial, as it shapes the plausibility and impact of each scenario. Short-term projections allow for concrete plans, while longer horizons push you into visionary territory. Each choice reflects a different kind of ambition, a different type of foresight.
• Field the Scenario Teams
  Here, organizations have a choice: recruit an expert team to tackle all scenario work, or assign individual teams to champion specific types. Each approach has its logic. A unified team ensures depth and continuity; multiple teams allow for diversity and specialization. As the scenario process unfolds, it will naturally “funnel” up the organization, with decision-makers weighing the scenarios at each level.
• Set Scenario Importance Criteria
  Deciding which scenarios matter most — before anyone gets attached — is vital to maintaining focus and fairness. Clear criteria for prioritizing and synthesizing scenarios can help avoid internal conflict, guiding how scenarios will be chosen, shaped, and acted upon.

The Heart of the Multi View Scenarios Work:

This is where the groundwork transforms into actionable insight. Each step builds a more nuanced and actionable portrait of what the future might hold.

• Detect Key Scenario Factors — For each scenario, identify the influential factors — the forces that truly matter. This process is like untangling threads in a tapestry, finding which parts most influence the core of the scenario field. Ranking these factors overcomes the trap of subjective or narrow thinking and reveals interconnections through visual mapping, subsystems, and feedback loops.
• Foresight Alternative Projections — By exploring three or four alternative projections for each scenario, the process pushes beyond one-dimensional thinking. Here’s where the picture of each scenario gets layered: probable, threatening, and enabling possibilities offer a more resilient view.
• Calculate/Formulate Scenarios — Like bundling brushstrokes into a painting, here we start to cluster projections into coherent scenarios. Consistencies and overlaps start to emerge, and a clear picture of the “window of possibilities” takes shape.
• Analyze, Map, and Determine Scenarios — Now it’s time to name the driving forces, the likely winners and losers, and the specific pathways each scenario might follow. Think of it as a blueprint for each future world: who thrives, who flounders, and what internal changes might be needed if that future materializes.
• Prioritize Scenario Favourites — The next task is a deliberate evaluation: which scenarios align with strategic criteria and will ultimately shape the organization’s path? This step is about honing in on a shortlist, logging all insights to build a well-documented “portfolio of futures” for future reference.
• Build a Strategy Roadmap — For each chosen scenario, map out the changes that would need to occur. How does it differ from today’s approach? What resources, investments, and shifts are required? This roadmap turns vision into operational blueprints, showing precisely what it would take to thrive in each possible world.

Multi View Scenarios work followed by:

Now that scenarios are mapped, the real challenge is embedding them into the fabric of the organization.

• Land Scenarios — Scenarios only matter if they resonate. Translate them into formats that engage executives and staff, prompting them to rethink assumptions. This is about turning insight into action, spurring departments to make future-oriented decisions.
• Scorecard Scenario Efforts — Traditional metrics aren’t enough here. Track how the conditions underlying each scenario are evolving, creating a “health check” for strategic assumptions.
• Organizational Pivots — Beyond the annual strategy cycle, respond to significant shifts in the scenario landscape by making official updates to strategy documents, creating a real-time feedback loop.
• Rotate Scenario Owners — To avoid the pitfalls of entrenched thinking, switch up who’s responsible for scenario work. A rotation injects fresh perspectives, combats bias, and builds organizational resilience by involving new voices in future planning.

At its core, the Multi View Scenarios approach is more than a tool — it’s a shift in mindset. It acknowledges the limitations of a single-view strategy and embraces complexity. The result? A dynamic, agile organization, ready to pivot with the tide of uncertainty and seize opportunities that lie just over the horizon.

Additional Commentary on Multi View Scenarios:

“Demagogues and Ideologues used to run some of our top companies — espousing the my way or the highway school of leadership. We now know more than any other leadership skill, adaptability is required to meet a complex, sped up future head on. Our applied future thinking and strategy development process should reflect that paradigm shift too. Multi View Scenarios allows for a full range of scenarios to be given voice, consideration and application. Now, CEOs are no longer banging their fist on podiums, they are pulling the best range of levers provided to them.” — Sean Moffitt

Grey Swans — A Series of Specialty Posts:

This is number fifteen of a set of fifteen posts on different methods and frameworks for chasing Grey Swans. but we have so much other commentary on this valuable but often overlooked chase for the non-obvious:

• I — Grey Swan Week and defining Grey Swans
• II — Our 2023 Report Card of Grey Swans (last year’s review and performance)
• III — Fifteen Ways to Hunt for Grey Swans (methods and frameworks) — #1 CIPHER
• #2 SCAMPER
• #3 SUPERCAFFEINATED U
• #4 FUTURES WHEEL
• #5 CONE OF POSSIBILITIES
• #6 WEAK SIGNALS
• #7 SWAN SOURCING
• #8 SCENARIO ARCHETYPES
• #9 OUTSIDE-IN COLLISIONS
• #10 POSSIBILITY PREMORTEMS
• #11 RED TEAMING
• #12 WHAT IF … EXPLORATION
• #13 ADOR EDGES
• #14 CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
• #15 MULTI-VIEW SCENARIOS
• IV — Fifty Grey Swan Wild Card Influences in 2025 (ranking the categories)
• V — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<25%) — Cloudy Swans
• VI — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<5%) — Stormy Swans
• VII — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<1%) — Shadow Swans

Stay tuned with us here, as well as on our website for all the rundowns.

Participate in our Hunt for Grey Swans

Don’t worry it’s a humane hunt. We have already invited some of our regular contributors to provide us the seeds of what will be our authoritative list of one hundred 2024 Grey Swans.

These are the improbable, disruptive and remote developments that decision makers better keep at least one eye peeled open for so they don’t blindside them. Perhaps you have some you’ve considered yourself.

Be among the most talented and wide-eyed observers. Let us know your Grey Swan additions and we will add them to our annual collection with our 2024 Grey Swan Guild Submission Form. Other benefits and collabroations may follow.

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Grey Swan Guild — Making Sense of the World and Next Grey Swans

We are the Guild whose mission it is to make sense of the world and next Grey Swans (wild cards, scenarios, early signals).

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Now past our 4th year of our Guild, we have built twelve ventures designed to create value and tap our enormous reservoir of talent found inside the Guild.

To get directly involved in any one of our Cygnus Ventures , including two venture efforts focused on research and intelligence efforts called Weathervanes (current focused) and The Radar Collection (future-focused).

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To get directly involved in any one of our twelve (12) Cygnus Ventures including click here. To hire our ventures group for any of your own wicked challenges or Grey Swans, let’s have a discussion.

To get directly involved in any one of our twelve (12) Cygnus Ventures including click here. To hire our ventures group for any of your own wicked challenges or Grey Swans, let’s have a discussion.

Join some of our ventures: https://bit.ly/gsgventures