The Hunt for Grey Swans — Top 15 Methods & Frameworks — #3 SUPERCAFFEINATED U

Chasing Possibilities, Wild Cards and Extremes by Harnessing and Concocting with Uncertainties

Author: Sean Moffitt, Grey Swan Guild Founder and CEO, Cygnus Ventures

For over a year, we have had an intrepid group play with the under-considered topic of Uncertainty. We actually turned our search into a book that’s heading into its second edition printing (Uncertainty — Making Sense of the World for Better, Bolder Outcomes). We are producing what I think will be the best research and intelligence briefing on the topic in our Uncertainty Weathervane report (due out Feb’2024). We also have an Uncertainty Podcast. And now we have produced a new method and framework for identifying and sighting Grey Swans in this post below.

In late 2022, we were like a set of mosquitos attracted to the Uncertainty patio lantern. It’s such an expansive phenomenon that’s been given even more wattage of interest in these post-pandemica times. Uncertainty has so many facets to explore (we did nine flavours of it in our book). It also is felt so differently by people, with so many different source originations (as visualized below). It not only demands our attention but we can now say with some evidence and aptitude that Uncertainty may be one of the biggest catalysts and paralyzers of our modern times.

Originations of Uncertainty

We scoured the world looking at the source of how uncertainty infiltrates our world and landed on six primary triggers for this feeling of not quite stable, not quite known, and not quite confident state of affairs and mind:

• Flashpoint — the lightning quick perfect storm of uncertainty; the gap between what was true yesterday but not today.
• Creeping — the slipping away or countdown clock of uncertainty; the gap between what was true in the past but not in the future.
• Action-Reaction — the shuffling of the cards, knock on effects of uncertainty; the gap between what was true before something got pushed into the system but not before those reactions and counter-reactions settled.
• Revelatory — the unveiling of truths and newfound dissonance of uncertainty: the gap between what we knew before and what we know now.
• Personal — our cultural, ethical, moral and philosophical prism of uncertainty; the gap between what we believed and had faith in before and what we believe and have faith in now.
• Existential — the confidence gap and quest for understanding our meaning, purpose and calling type of uncertainty; the gap between what we were striving for before but haven’t achieved yet, and what mission and goals we are striving for now.

Originations of Uncertainty

Regardless of the source of uncertainty, it’s undeniable that the power of it has driven some of most foundational discoveries and preoccupations over the millennia. Consistent with our year long quest to profile the most important 15 methods and frameworks that surface Grey Swan big possibilities, important wild cards and high value extremes, we thought there would be a huge miss if we didn’t create a framework that effectively harnessed uncertainty as an influence (and improved its utility versus the standard historical concept of VUCA). Let’s introduce superCAFFEINATED into your world!

Our third method and framework for hunting Grey Swans that we profile is superCAFFEINATED U. It is fresh new thinking, a result of an intense two year study on the topic and one that we believe adds something important and new to the foresight, systems thinking, complexity, sensemaking and trend navigation schools of looking for the non-obvious.

Reminder — Grey Swan Definition: Unlikely but knowable key factors, events and developments, capable of being evaluated and validated in advance, with impacts that could positively and/or negatively shake up the world.

Let’s get vested in this effort together. Don’t be an ostrich, pigeon or dodo, be a Grey Swan.

The Full Collection of Grey Swan Methods & Frameworks

Method #3 — superCAFFEINATED U — Concocting with Uncertainties

SuperCAFFEINATED U (“U” short for uncertainty) is an uncertainty-driven, environment scanning framework that provides eleven triggers for future discovery and meaning.

With such an expansive array of factors, the method is able to deliver A-Has (new inferences), Eurekas (unique syntheses), Innovations (breakthrough new deliveries) and pull together a wide spectrum of provocative Grey Swan Headlines and Grey Swan Implications.

SuperCAFFEINATED U is a tool that can be used to either understand current or future environments effectively. We’ve altered it subtly to look at producing Grey Swan headlines of possibility, wild card trends or extreme futures. Use it and you will become an expert barista of the beyond.

Invented by: Sean Moffitt, founder of Futureproofing and Cygnus Ventures, as a pursuit to define a more expansive world of uncertainty that considers all the key variables in flux, and uses it as a tool to proof against the future.

Category: Uncertainty-driven foresight and system thinking framework, tool and map.

Why we Love It as a Grey Swan Tool: Super Caffeinated U pulls together the major fragments of uncertainty to tease out future developments, provides five boxes of outputs that synthesizes outputs in a constructive, intuitive canvas.

Overcomes the sin of: Oversimplification and knee jerk opinion — the superCAFFEINATED method and tool demands some thorough prior investigation of things that are changing in the world; disconnected insights and observations from headlines, conclusions and implications — this tool links these inputs and outputs together.

Work preceded by:

• Mining evidence of uncertainty — an advance individual production, or group collaboration, for teasing out the key eleven aspects of growing or decreasing uncertainty.
• Connecting threads — being able to work across individual and group superCAFFEINATED productions to see powerful and Grey Swan-esque convergence of new possibilities.

Work followed by:

• Headline building — creating Grey Swan banner statements that are resonant and defensible, by the thinking and evidence behind them, the stark language used, the provocative visuals attached to them, in addition to the rational and emotional drivers of uncertainty triggering them.
• CAFFEINATED Implications — considering the top reactions and resulting effects from the Grey Swan Headline being true about the future world, with consideration for new events, systems, values and developments, both as possibilities and as threats.

Facets of superCAFFEINATED U:

• Complexity: what things are becoming more (or less) complicated by multiple perspectives, changing dynamics, or more volume, variety or interdependency of factors?
• Ambiguity: what things are becoming more (or less) unclear, confusing, more difficult in defining a truth, or increasing in multiple interpretations?
• Faster: what things are accelerating (or decelerating) in thought, shift, development, use, adoption or acceptance, and creating lags in
  the systems trying to catch up?
• Fragmentation: what things are further dividing, atomizing, fracturing, propagating more choice, flexibility, divisions or polarization? or coming together more?
• Erraticness: what things are becoming more (or less) turbulent, inconsistent, unpredictable in trajectory, pattern or reliability?
• Interconnected: what things are becoming more (or less) intertwined, connected at multiple points or levels, linking into a more expansive series or network(s)?
• Needs+: what things are becoming bigger (or smaller) societal challenges or gaps between human, global and planetary aspirations and realities?
• Anxiety: what things are driving increased (or decreased) stresses, worries, emotions, eroding confidence, trust gaps, and their impact on real or perceived harms or fragilities?
• Tech Enablement: what things are becoming more (or less) possible, effective, efficient or integrated, through emerging technology use and applications?
• Exponentiality: what things are growing (or decaying) or demonstrating potential to do so, at a hyperbolic rate, in occurrence and/or outcome?
• Disruption: what things are interrupting (or quieting) incumbents conventions, industries, or processes, with fundamental expectation and behavioural shifts?

Additional Commentary:

“Good, bad or indifferent, uncertainty is one of the most powerful forces that drives the world’s events and developments. A lot of uncertainty drives Grey Swans. And from peoples’ recent assessments, we are collectively experiencing more uncertainty now than we ever have in the past. Until now, we had an incomplete view of uncertainty that did not truly and fully reflect what drives it. Our newly developed superCAFFEINATED framework translates this uncertainty full view into a comprehensive emerging trend framework. If you are serious about hunting Grey Swans, and are a keen observer of what’s changing around you, and inside you, this method is a surefire winner for you.” Sean Moffitt

Grey Swan Posts:

This is number three of a set of fifteen posts on different methods and frameworks for chasing Grey Swans. but we have so much other commentary on this valuable but often overlooked chase for the non-obvious:

• I — Grey Swan Week and defining Grey Swans
• II — Our 2023 Report Card of Grey Swans (last year’s review and performance)
• III — Fifteen Ways to Hunt for Grey Swans (methods and frameworks) — #1 CIPHER,
• #2 SCAMPER
• #3 SUPERCAFFEINATED U
• #4 FUTURES WHEEL
• #5 CONE OF POSSIBILITIES
• #6 WEAK SIGNALS
• #7 SWAN SOURCING
• #8 SCENARIO ARCHETYPES
• #9 OUTSIDE-IN COLLISIONS
• #10 POSSIBILITY PREMORTEMS
• #11 RED TEAMING
• #12 WHAT IF … EXPLORATION
• #13 ADOR EDGES
• #14 CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
• #15 MULTI-VIEW SCENARIOS
• IV — Fifty Grey Swan Wild Card Influences in 2025 (ranking the categories)
• V — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<25%) — Cloudy Swans
• VI — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<5%) — Stormy Swans
• VII — Twelve Grey Swans Revealed (<1%) — Shadow Swans

Stay tuned with us here, as well as on our website for all the rundowns.

Participate in our Hunt for Grey Swans

Don’t worry it’s a humane hunt. We have already invited some of our regular contributors to provide us the seeds of what will be our authoritative list of one hundred 2024 Grey Swans.

These are the improbable, disruptive and remote developments that decision makers better keep at least one eye peeled open for so they don’t blindside them. Perhaps you have some you’ve considered yourself.

Be among the most talented and wide-eyed observers. Let us know your Grey Swan additions and we will add them to our annual collection with our 2024 Grey Swan Guild Subnmission Form. Other benefits and collabroations may follow.

Grey Swan Submission Form: https://bit.ly/2024greyswan

Grey Swan Guild — Making Sense of the World and Next Grey Swans

We are the Guild whose mission it is to make sense of the world and next Grey Swans (wild cards, scenarios, early signals).

How we do this is guided by our four values of: aspiration, collaboration, curiosity and purpose.

We bring this to life through four facets of our world-leading Guild experience:

• Intelligence, Content and Publications
• Events, Experiences and Learning Forums
• Global Community and Network
• Experiments and Ventures

Here’s what you can do in the Guild:

Learn about the Guild: https://www.greyswanguild.org/
Read our Content: https://greyswanguild.medium.com/
Attend our Events: https://www.greyswanguild.org/calendar
Become an Official Guild Member: https://bit.ly/gsgsmemberform

The Guild Hub: https://www.greyswanguild.org/

Cygnus Ventures (powered by Grey Swan Guild ) — Expain Today, Imagine Tomorrow

Now coming up to our 4th year of our Guild, we have built twelve ventures designed to create value and tap our enormous reservoir of talent found inside the Guild.

To get directly involved in any one of our Cygnus Ventures , including two venture efforts focused on research and intelligence efforts called Weathervanes (current focused) and The Radar Collection (future-focused).

Go Deeper as a Global Sensemaker: https://bit.ly/lofsenseform
Learn more about our ventures: https://www.greyswanguild.org/cygnusventures

To get directly involved in any one of our twelve (12) Cygnus Ventures including click here. To hire our ventures group for any of your own wicked challenges or Grey Swans, let’s have a discussion.

Join some of our ventures; https://bit.ly/gsgventures